November 5, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.09 9.34 -1.20
Exeter Chiefs 6.92 7.99 -1.10
Northampton Saints 2.33 0.25 2.10
Gloucester 1.33 0.58 0.70
Sale Sharks 1.12 0.17 0.90
Bath -0.12 1.10 -1.20
Wasps -0.69 0.31 -1.00
Harlequins -0.93 -0.81 -0.10
Bristol -1.14 -2.77 1.60
Leicester Tigers -2.30 -1.76 -0.50
Worcester Warriors -2.89 -2.69 -0.20
London Irish -5.50 -5.51 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Nov 02 16 – 10 1.70 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 02 40 – 22 6.50 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Nov 03 16 – 13 0.50 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. London Irish Nov 03 16 – 13 19.90 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Bath Nov 03 30 – 22 3.30 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 04 20 – 24 -5.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Nov 09 Sale Sharks 6.30
2 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Nov 10 Bath 2.00
3 Gloucester vs. Saracens Nov 10 Saracens -2.30
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 10 Harlequins 6.50
5 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 11 London Irish 1.30
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Nov 11 Exeter Chiefs 12.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »