Super Rugby Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 16.01 | 17.10 | -1.10 |
| Chiefs | 8.18 | 5.91 | 2.30 |
| Hurricanes | 7.97 | 8.79 | -0.80 |
| Jaguares | 7.41 | 7.23 | 0.20 |
| Highlanders | 2.96 | 4.53 | -1.60 |
| Stormers | 2.37 | -0.71 | 3.10 |
| Sharks | 1.36 | -0.87 | 2.20 |
| Brumbies | 0.68 | 2.01 | -1.30 |
| Blues | 0.35 | -0.04 | 0.40 |
| Bulls | 0.05 | 1.28 | -1.20 |
| Lions | -1.48 | 0.39 | -1.90 |
| Waratahs | -4.43 | -2.48 | -2.00 |
| Reds | -4.65 | -5.86 | 1.20 |
| Rebels | -7.63 | -7.84 | 0.20 |
| Sunwolves | -18.13 | -18.45 | 0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Crusaders | Feb 14 | 8 – 25 | -9.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Waratahs | Feb 14 | 24 – 10 | -0.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Sunwolves vs. Chiefs | Feb 15 | 17 – 43 | -19.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Hurricanes vs. Sharks | Feb 15 | 38 – 22 | 11.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Brumbies vs. Highlanders | Feb 15 | 22 – 23 | 4.80 | FALSE |
| 6 | Lions vs. Stormers | Feb 15 | 30 – 33 | 1.50 | FALSE |
| 7 | Jaguares vs. Reds | Feb 15 | 43 – 27 | 18.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Highlanders | Feb 21 | Crusaders | 17.50 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Sharks | Feb 22 | Sharks | -3.00 |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Brumbies | Feb 22 | Chiefs | 13.50 |
| 4 | Reds vs. Sunwolves | Feb 22 | Reds | 19.50 |
| 5 | Stormers vs. Jaguares | Feb 22 | Stormers | 1.00 |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Blues | Feb 22 | Bulls | 5.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Last year you were closer.
4 years ago
Yes. I think I started off pretty badly last year too though. Early in the season is hard, and this year particularly so given the number of personnel changes after the world cup.
Normally I expect something over 70% correct, but we shall see.
4 years ago