February 25, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.78 12.20 3.60
Munster 9.40 10.73 -1.30
Glasgow Warriors 6.45 9.66 -3.20
Edinburgh 5.92 1.24 4.70
Ulster 4.58 1.89 2.70
Scarlets 2.49 3.91 -1.40
Connacht 0.61 2.68 -2.10
Cheetahs -0.03 -3.38 3.30
Cardiff Blues -0.40 0.54 -0.90
Ospreys -2.82 2.80 -5.60
Treviso -4.03 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -7.76 -9.31 1.60
Southern Kings -14.82 -14.70 -0.10
Zebre -15.37 -16.93 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 83 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ospreys vs. Leinster Feb 22 13 – 21 -13.00 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Feb 22 41 – 14 10.50 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Munster Feb 22 0 – 28 -17.30 TRUE
4 Glasgow Warriors vs. Dragons Feb 23 34 – 19 22.00 TRUE
5 Ulster vs. Cheetahs Feb 23 20 – 10 11.40 TRUE
6 Cardiff Blues vs. Treviso Feb 24 34 – 24 10.20 TRUE
7 Scarlets vs. Southern Kings Feb 24 36 – 17 24.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 29 Edinburgh 12.80
2 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Feb 29 Leinster 15.80
3 Zebre vs. Ospreys Feb 29 Ospreys -6.00
4 Treviso vs. Ulster Mar 01 Ulster -2.10
5 Munster vs. Scarlets Mar 01 Munster 13.40
6 Dragons vs. Cheetahs Mar 01 Cheetahs -1.20
7 Southern Kings vs. Connacht Mar 01 Connacht -8.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »