February 25, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.84 7.99 1.80
Saracens 7.60 9.34 -1.70
Sale Sharks 4.71 0.17 4.50
Gloucester 0.55 0.58 -0.00
Bath 0.20 1.10 -0.90
Wasps 0.18 0.31 -0.10
Northampton Saints -0.87 0.25 -1.10
Bristol -1.57 -2.77 1.20
Harlequins -2.21 -0.81 -1.40
Leicester Tigers -3.77 -1.76 -2.00
London Irish -3.82 -5.51 1.70
Worcester Warriors -4.64 -2.69 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 66 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Feb 22 19 – 12 6.90 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 22 13 – 10 8.20 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Feb 22 57 – 7 11.70 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Gloucester Feb 22 24 – 20 -0.40 FALSE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 22 36 – 3 10.70 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Saracens Feb 22 60 – 10 -8.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Bristol Feb 29 Bath 6.30
2 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Feb 29 Gloucester 0.30
3 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 29 Exeter Chiefs -7.50
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 29 Leicester Tigers 5.40
5 London Irish vs. Wasps Feb 29 London Irish 0.50
6 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Feb 29 Saracens -4.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »