Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
I got caught out a bit this round with games being played earlier in the week and then again on the weekend. As usual my predictions are what they would have been before the games were played, the predictions are produced by running my algorithm over the past data and information about home grounds.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 10.41 | 7.99 | 2.40 |
| Saracens | 7.39 | 9.34 | -1.90 |
| Sale Sharks | 5.79 | 0.17 | 5.60 |
| Wasps | 1.79 | 0.31 | 1.50 |
| Bath | 1.08 | 1.10 | -0.00 |
| Bristol | 0.96 | -2.77 | 3.70 |
| Gloucester | -0.16 | 0.58 | -0.70 |
| Northampton Saints | -1.24 | 0.25 | -1.50 |
| Harlequins | -2.38 | -0.81 | -1.60 |
| Leicester Tigers | -4.42 | -1.76 | -2.70 |
| Worcester Warriors | -5.81 | -2.69 | -3.10 |
| London Irish | -7.20 | -5.51 | -1.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 96 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wasps vs. Sale Sharks | Aug 26 | 11 – 20 | 1.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs | Aug 26 | 22 – 25 | -5.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish | Aug 27 | 13 – 7 | 7.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Gloucester | Aug 27 | 36 – 20 | 11.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins | Aug 27 | 29 – 14 | -0.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Northampton Saints vs. Bath | Aug 27 | 3 – 18 | 4.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sale Sharks vs. Bristol | Aug 30 | Sale Sharks | 9.30 |
| 2 | Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints | Aug 30 | Harlequins | 3.40 |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors | Aug 31 | Exeter Chiefs | 20.70 |
| 4 | Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers | Aug 31 | Gloucester | 8.80 |
| 5 | London Irish vs. Saracens | Aug 31 | Saracens | -10.10 |
| 6 | Bath vs. Wasps | Sep 01 | Bath | 3.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »