October 13, 2020

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 14.85 15.13 -0.30
Canterbury 8.31 8.40 -0.10
Auckland 7.53 6.75 0.80
Wellington 6.26 6.47 -0.20
North Harbour 3.83 2.87 1.00
Waikato 3.69 1.31 2.40
Bay of Plenty 3.43 8.21 -4.80
Hawke’s Bay -0.30 0.91 -1.20
Taranaki -3.52 -4.42 0.90
Otago -3.92 -4.03 0.10
Northland -7.03 -8.71 1.70
Counties Manukau -9.70 -8.18 -1.50
Southland -9.88 -14.04 4.20
Manawatu -13.44 -10.57 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Oct 09 10 – 34 -17.80 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 10 28 – 29 -9.20 TRUE
3 Wellington vs. Otago Oct 10 34 – 35 15.30 FALSE
4 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Oct 10 36 – 13 15.20 TRUE
5 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 11 46 – 10 3.30 TRUE
6 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 11 33 – 7 12.60 TRUE
7 Northland vs. Southland Oct 11 18 – 14 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Oct 16 Hawke’s Bay 9.70
2 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 17 Bay of Plenty -13.90
3 Auckland vs. Tasman Oct 17 Tasman -4.30
4 Southland vs. Taranaki Oct 17 Taranaki -3.40
5 Canterbury vs. Waikato Oct 18 Canterbury 7.60
6 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 18 Otago 8.80
7 Wellington vs. North Harbour Oct 18 Wellington 5.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »