December 29, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.95 7.35 2.60
Sale Sharks 3.71 4.96 -1.30
Wasps 3.51 5.66 -2.20
Bristol 2.03 1.28 0.70
Bath 0.50 2.14 -1.60
Harlequins -0.97 -1.08 0.10
Gloucester -1.48 -1.02 -0.50
Northampton Saints -2.37 -2.48 0.10
Leicester Tigers -6.21 -6.14 -0.10
Newcastle Falcons -6.89 -10.00 3.10
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Worcester Warriors -7.73 -5.71 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Bristol Dec 27 19 – 27 2.70 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Dec 27 28 – 20 17.00 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 27 29 – 10 8.70 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Dec 28 23 – 26 5.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 02 Bristol 13.40
2 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Jan 02 Harlequins -2.30
3 Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 03 Exeter Chiefs -1.90
4 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 03 Sale Sharks -0.70
5 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Jan 04 Northampton Saints -0.30
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Jan 04 Bath -2.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »