Top 14 Predictions for Round 13
Team Ratings for Round 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing-Metro 92 | 7.20 | 6.21 | 1.00 |
| Stade Toulousain | 6.13 | 4.80 | 1.30 |
| La Rochelle | 5.08 | 2.32 | 2.80 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.79 | 5.61 | -0.80 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.04 | 3.22 | 0.80 |
| RC Toulonnais | 3.89 | 3.56 | 0.30 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 2.26 | 2.83 | -0.60 |
| Montpellier | 1.91 | 2.30 | -0.40 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -0.14 | -3.22 | 3.10 |
| Castres Olympique | -2.46 | -0.47 | -2.00 |
| Brive | -3.21 | -3.26 | 0.10 |
| Section Paloise | -3.40 | -4.48 | 1.10 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -4.85 | -4.13 | -0.70 |
| SU Agen | -10.68 | -4.72 | -6.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 77 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. Lyon Rugby | Dec 27 | 12 – 8 | -3.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | La Rochelle vs. Montpellier | Dec 27 | 22 – 9 | 8.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. SU Agen | Dec 27 | 45 – 10 | 22.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | RC Toulonnais vs. Clermont Auvergne | Dec 27 | 27 – 9 | 4.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Paris | Dec 27 | 29 – 27 | 2.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Dec 27 | 45 – 23 | 8.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 13
Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Section Paloise | Jan 02 | Aviron Bayonnais | 4.00 |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. RC Toulonnais | Jan 02 | Bordeaux-Begles | 3.90 |
| 3 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Jan 02 | Clermont Auvergne | 2.30 |
| 4 | Lyon Rugby vs. Castres Olympique | Jan 02 | Lyon Rugby | 12.70 |
| 5 | Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain | Jan 02 | Montpellier | 1.30 |
| 6 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Brive | Jan 02 | Stade Francais Paris | 8.60 |
| 7 | SU Agen vs. La Rochelle | Jan 02 | La Rochelle | -10.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »