March 2, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

I apparently missed another rescheduled game. The prediction is given below for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.56 4.80 3.80
Clermont Auvergne 7.03 3.22 3.80
Racing-Metro 92 6.26 6.21 0.00
La Rochelle 6.25 2.32 3.90
Bordeaux-Begles 4.58 2.83 1.80
Lyon Rugby 3.70 5.61 -1.90
RC Toulonnais 3.25 3.56 -0.30
Montpellier 1.01 2.30 -1.30
Stade Francais Paris -0.71 -3.22 2.50
Castres Olympique -1.58 -0.47 -1.10
Brive -2.78 -3.26 0.50
Section Paloise -4.19 -4.48 0.30
Aviron Bayonnais -6.91 -4.13 -2.80
SU Agen -13.90 -4.72 -9.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 125 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 RC Toulonnais vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 27 14 – 16 14.90 FALSE
2 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 28 11 – 14 4.50 FALSE
3 SU Agen vs. Clermont Auvergne Feb 28 16 – 52 -9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 07 Lyon Rugby -4.10
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise Mar 07 Bordeaux-Begles 13.50
3 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Mar 07 La Rochelle -0.80
4 Montpellier vs. Clermont Auvergne Mar 06 Montpellier 0.70
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 07 RC Toulonnais 1.60
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. SU Agen Mar 07 Stade Francais Paris 18.00
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Brive Mar 07 Stade Toulousain 16.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »