March 9, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.97 7.35 -0.40
Bristol 3.41 1.28 2.10
Sale Sharks 3.39 4.96 -1.60
Harlequins 2.13 -1.08 3.20
Wasps -0.03 5.66 -5.70
Northampton Saints -1.37 -2.48 1.10
Gloucester -2.35 -1.02 -1.30
Bath -2.82 2.14 -5.00
London Irish -4.71 -8.05 3.30
Leicester Tigers -4.90 -6.14 1.20
Newcastle Falcons -5.89 -10.00 4.10
Worcester Warriors -6.93 -5.71 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 07 16 – 38 -3.40 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Mar 08 37 – 19 6.80 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Mar 06 33 – 32 4.90 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 06 31 – 16 13.60 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Gloucester Mar 07 19 – 20 7.80 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Mar 07 23 – 24 -6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Wasps Mar 13 Bristol 7.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Mar 14 Exeter Chiefs 9.30
3 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 14 Gloucester 7.00
4 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 15 London Irish 6.70
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Mar 14 Newcastle Falcons 1.40
6 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Mar 14 Sale Sharks -0.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »