March 23, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.55 7.35 -0.80
Bristol 4.32 1.28 3.00
Sale Sharks 3.94 4.96 -1.00
Harlequins 3.85 -1.08 4.90
Wasps -0.54 5.66 -6.20
Bath -0.95 2.14 -3.10
Northampton Saints -1.50 -2.48 1.00
Leicester Tigers -4.25 -6.14 1.90
Gloucester -4.29 -1.02 -3.30
London Irish -5.82 -8.05 2.20
Newcastle Falcons -6.94 -10.00 3.10
Worcester Warriors -7.46 -5.71 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 21 47 – 22 9.40 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 21 47 – 31 15.20 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Mar 21 59 – 24 10.20 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps Mar 21 18 – 20 -1.90 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Mar 21 21 – 28 -0.50 TRUE
6 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Mar 21 41 – 13 12.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 28 Bristol 5.00
2 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 27 Exeter Chiefs -6.30
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 29 Leicester Tigers 7.20
4 London Irish vs. Bath Mar 28 Bath -0.40
5 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks Mar 28 Wasps 0.00
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Mar 28 Northampton Saints -1.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »