March 30, 2021

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.93 14.49 1.40
Blues 8.23 7.80 0.40
Hurricanes 6.13 7.13 -1.00
Chiefs 4.28 4.38 -0.10
Brumbies 3.20 1.47 1.70
Reds 2.67 1.59 1.10
Highlanders 1.91 2.70 -0.80
Rebels -3.22 -3.51 0.30
Waratahs -8.59 -5.02 -3.60
Western Force -12.57 -13.05 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 26 19 – 30 2.20 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Western Force Mar 26 42 – 14 20.70 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 27 15 – 12 1.40 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Reds Mar 27 14 – 46 -4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 02 Crusaders 19.50
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Apr 02 Brumbies -6.30
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 03 Blues 7.60
4 Rebels vs. Reds Apr 03 Reds -0.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »