Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 7.03 | 7.35 | -0.30 |
| Harlequins | 4.29 | -1.08 | 5.40 |
| Bristol | 4.05 | 1.28 | 2.80 |
| Sale Sharks | 3.16 | 4.96 | -1.80 |
| Northampton Saints | 1.34 | -2.48 | 3.80 |
| Wasps | -1.28 | 5.66 | -6.90 |
| Bath | -1.93 | 2.14 | -4.10 |
| Gloucester | -2.56 | -1.02 | -1.50 |
| Leicester Tigers | -3.79 | -6.14 | 2.30 |
| London Irish | -5.84 | -8.05 | 2.20 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -8.02 | -10.00 | 2.00 |
| Worcester Warriors | -9.55 | -5.71 | -3.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 95 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs | Apr 24 | 12 – 20 | 2.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | London Irish vs. Harlequins | Apr 24 | 21 – 25 | -5.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons | Apr 25 | 35 – 24 | 9.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 25 | 18 – 23 | 0.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks | Apr 25 | 32 – 35 | -8.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Bath | Apr 26 | 39 – 29 | 4.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Bristol | May 09 | Bristol | -1.50 |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors | May 09 | Exeter Chiefs | 21.10 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Wasps | May 09 | Harlequins | 10.10 |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish | May 09 | Newcastle Falcons | 2.30 |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester | May 09 | Northampton Saints | 8.40 |
| 6 | Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers | May 09 | Sale Sharks | 11.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »