NRL Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 20.76 | 14.53 | 6.20 |
| Panthers | 19.02 | 8.88 | 10.10 |
| Roosters | 8.05 | 10.25 | -2.20 |
| Eels | 6.92 | 1.68 | 5.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 3.73 | -4.77 | 8.50 |
| Rabbitohs | 3.37 | 7.73 | -4.40 |
| Raiders | -2.00 | 6.98 | -9.00 |
| Warriors | -2.32 | -1.84 | -0.50 |
| Dragons | -2.74 | -4.95 | 2.20 |
| Sharks | -4.36 | -0.76 | -3.60 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.99 | -3.07 | -2.90 |
| Titans | -7.37 | -7.22 | -0.10 |
| Knights | -8.00 | -2.61 | -5.40 |
| Cowboys | -8.34 | -8.05 | -0.30 |
| Broncos | -9.72 | -11.16 | 1.40 |
| Bulldogs | -12.99 | -7.62 | -5.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 88 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Knights | May 20 | 36 – 20 | -0.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Wests Tigers | May 21 | 30 – 26 | 3.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Dragons | May 21 | 13 – 12 | 1.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Bulldogs | May 22 | 30 – 20 | 8.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Broncos | May 22 | 16 – 34 | 28.40 | FALSE |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Storm | May 22 | 10 – 34 | -18.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Rabbitohs vs. Panthers | May 23 | 12 – 56 | -6.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Eels vs. Sea Eagles | May 23 | 6 – 28 | 11.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Storm | May 27 | Storm | -27.50 |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Warriors | May 28 | Warriors | -3.00 |
| 3 | Wests Tigers vs. Dragons | May 28 | Dragons | -0.20 |
| 4 | Panthers vs. Bulldogs | May 29 | Panthers | 35.00 |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Eels | May 29 | Eels | -0.50 |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Raiders | May 29 | Roosters | 13.10 |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Titans | May 30 | Sharks | 6.00 |
| 8 | Knights vs. Sea Eagles | May 30 | Sea Eagles | -8.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »