Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15
Team Ratings for Week 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 14.93 | 14.49 | 0.40 |
| Blues | 9.01 | 7.80 | 1.20 |
| Hurricanes | 7.02 | 7.13 | -0.10 |
| Chiefs | 4.75 | 4.38 | 0.40 |
| Highlanders | 3.73 | 2.70 | 1.00 |
| Brumbies | 3.36 | 1.47 | 1.90 |
| Reds | 1.23 | 1.59 | -0.40 |
| Rebels | -5.77 | -3.51 | -2.30 |
| Waratahs | -9.31 | -5.02 | -4.30 |
| Western Force | -10.98 | -13.05 | 2.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 53 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Rebels | May 21 | 35 – 13 | 18.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Western Force vs. Highlanders | May 21 | 15 – 25 | -8.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Blues vs. Waratahs | May 22 | 48 – 21 | 24.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Brumbies | May 22 | 40 – 19 | 6.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Reds vs. Crusaders | May 22 | 28 – 63 | -5.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 15
Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Western Force | May 28 | Hurricanes | 24.50 |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Crusaders | May 29 | Crusaders | -17.70 |
| 3 | Blues vs. Brumbies | May 29 | Blues | 12.10 |
| 4 | Reds vs. Chiefs | May 29 | Reds | 3.00 |
| 5 | Highlanders vs. Rebels | May 30 | Highlanders | 9.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Note: I have changed these predictions because I had incorrect home game details from my usual source of fixtures and results.
Most games are not being played at usual home grounds, except Blues at Eden Park. Other grounds are Queenstown, Napier, Wollongong and Townsville. Given the away teams are from a different country, I have assigned home ground advantage to the home team.
3 years ago
I have adjusted the home ground advantage for the Highlanders v Rebels game: now taken as a neutral venue. Given that the Rebels are playing in their home country I could have given them home ground advantage, but since they have had to relocate interstate I did not.
3 years ago