May 9, 2019

Updated NRL Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

This is an unusual round in that all games are being played at Suncorp Stadium which is the home ground of the Brisbane Broncos. Hence they have been assigned home ground advantage. All other games are treated as being played at a neutral ground. The exception is the Warriors versus the Dragons where I have penalised the Warriors because they are playing overseas.

Thanks to Ben Frank for alerting me to this unusual situation.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.00 8.72 2.30
Rabbitohs 6.54 3.89 2.70
Storm 6.42 6.03 0.40
Raiders 3.81 1.81 2.00
Sharks 1.30 3.90 -2.60
Dragons 0.09 0.06 0.00
Broncos 0.03 2.63 -2.60
Eels -0.56 -6.17 5.60
Sea Eagles -1.62 -5.61 4.00
Cowboys -2.30 0.15 -2.50
Panthers -3.21 0.93 -4.10
Warriors -3.50 -0.27 -3.20
Bulldogs -3.98 -0.61 -3.40
Titans -5.22 -3.36 -1.90
Knights -5.24 -8.51 3.30
Wests Tigers -5.53 -5.57 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos May 02 38 – 6 5.80 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Titans May 03 28 – 14 4.60 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Storm May 03 20 – 18 -2.80 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Panthers May 04 30 – 12 8.70 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs May 04 18 – 10 4.90 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers May 04 42 – 12 17.80 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Knights May 05 18 – 36 10.20 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Dragons May 05 32 – 18 0.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Sharks May 09 Sharks -6.50
2 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers May 10 Panthers -2.30
3 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 10 Broncos 4.60
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights May 11 Bulldogs 1.30
5 Warriors vs. Dragons May 11 Dragons -5.10
6 Storm vs. Eels May 11 Storm 7.00
7 Roosters vs. Raiders May 12 Roosters 7.20
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 12 Rabbitohs 8.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Connor Butler

    Hi Mr.Scott, really big fan of your work, also a huge fan of rugby, woudl it be possibel to get the data you are using to run your predictions? I am currently working on a model that is similar to yours except for the MLR (canada’s rugby league ) and am having some problems with figuring out the margins outcome of games and how to quantify the advantage from home ground. Thanks again!

    5 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      flashscore (https://www.flashscore.com/) has comprehensive result data for all sorts of competitions. There are versions of it for different countries, including Australia, South Africa, and Canada. Tables are produced using javascript, but Selenium can be used to run a browser and grab the data.

      Stephanie Kovalchik’s talk at UseR 2017 in Brisbane is available on the web. Strongly recommended.

      5 years ago