NRL Predictions for Round 25
Team Ratings for Round 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 18.87 | 14.53 | 4.30 |
| Rabbitohs | 16.27 | 7.73 | 8.50 |
| Panthers | 11.84 | 8.88 | 3.00 |
| Sea Eagles | 11.01 | -4.77 | 15.80 |
| Eels | 4.13 | 1.68 | 2.40 |
| Roosters | 3.03 | 10.25 | -7.20 |
| Raiders | 1.03 | 6.98 | -5.90 |
| Sharks | -1.60 | -0.76 | -0.80 |
| Titans | -2.41 | -7.22 | 4.80 |
| Knights | -5.26 | -2.61 | -2.70 |
| Warriors | -5.86 | -1.84 | -4.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -6.96 | -3.07 | -3.90 |
| Dragons | -10.16 | -4.95 | -5.20 |
| Broncos | -10.21 | -11.16 | 0.90 |
| Cowboys | -11.51 | -8.05 | -3.50 |
| Bulldogs | -14.22 | -7.62 | -6.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 184 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knights vs. Titans | Aug 26 | 15 – 14 | -3.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Raiders | Aug 27 | 16 – 28 | -5.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 27 | 12 – 54 | -7.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Cowboys | Aug 28 | 26 – 38 | 4.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Broncos | Aug 28 | 24 – 16 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Storm vs. Eels | Aug 28 | 10 – 22 | 20.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs | Aug 29 | 36 – 18 | 26.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Panthers vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 29 | 30 – 16 | 19.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 25
Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raiders vs. Roosters | Sep 02 | Raiders | 1.00 |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Storm | Sep 03 | Storm | -17.50 |
| 3 | Eels vs. Panthers | Sep 03 | Panthers | -4.70 |
| 4 | Broncos vs. Knights | Sep 04 | Knights | -1.90 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles | Sep 04 | Sea Eagles | -19.50 |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Dragons | Sep 04 | Rabbitohs | 29.40 |
| 7 | Titans vs. Warriors | Sep 05 | Titans | 6.40 |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs | Sep 05 | Wests Tigers | 10.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Your last prediction results?
3 years ago
They are the same as usual. Positive margin means first named team expected to win, negative margin the second named team to win. Home ground advantage under the current circumstances is only applicable to Queensland teams, and sometimes applies to the second named team. For Round 24, that was the case for all three Queensland teams. All three games were nominally home games for the first named team, which I admit is a bit confusing.
I am not sure if this answers your question.
3 years ago