Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14
Team Ratings for Round 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 4.76 | 7.35 | -2.60 |
| Saracens | 3.91 | -5.00 | 8.90 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.01 | -6.14 | 8.10 |
| Harlequins | 1.65 | -1.08 | 2.70 |
| Wasps | 1.49 | 5.66 | -4.20 |
| Sale Sharks | 1.33 | 4.96 | -3.60 |
| Gloucester | 0.87 | -1.02 | 1.90 |
| Northampton Saints | 0.01 | -2.48 | 2.50 |
| Bristol | -1.85 | 1.28 | -3.10 |
| London Irish | -4.05 | -8.05 | 4.00 |
| Bath | -5.38 | 2.14 | -7.50 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -6.83 | -3.52 | -3.30 |
| Worcester Warriors | -9.54 | -5.71 | -3.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 76 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Sale Sharks | Jan 08 | 32 – 15 | -0.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs | Jan 09 | 14 – 12 | 1.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints | Jan 09 | 8 – 44 | 1.10 | FALSE |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Gloucester | Jan 09 | 24 – 25 | 8.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Bath vs. Worcester Warriors | Jan 10 | 22 – 19 | 9.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers | Jan 10 | 16 – 13 | 4.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 14
Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Harlequins | Jan 29 | Harlequins | -2.50 |
| 2 | London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs | Jan 30 | Exeter Chiefs | -4.30 |
| 3 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester | Jan 30 | Gloucester | -3.20 |
| 4 | Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints | Jan 30 | Northampton Saints | -5.10 |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers | Jan 31 | Sale Sharks | 3.80 |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Saracens | Jan 31 | Wasps | 2.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »