Top 14 Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.35 | 6.83 | 1.50 |
| La Rochelle | 8.04 | 6.78 | 1.30 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 6.84 | 5.42 | 1.40 |
| Lyon Rugby | 5.14 | 4.15 | 1.00 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.90 | 5.09 | -0.20 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 4.24 | 6.13 | -1.90 |
| Montpellier | 3.55 | -0.01 | 3.60 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.95 | 0.94 | 0.00 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.15 | 1.20 | -1.10 |
| RC Toulonnais | -0.19 | 1.82 | -2.00 |
| Section Paloise | -2.64 | -2.25 | -0.40 |
| Brive | -3.45 | -3.19 | -0.30 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.97 | -2.78 | -1.20 |
| Biarritz | -4.54 | -2.78 | -1.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 98 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biarritz vs. USA Perpignan | Jan 09 | 23 – 25 | 6.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Brive vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Jan 09 | 19 – 22 | -3.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Paris | Jan 09 | 15 – 9 | 7.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Lyon Rugby vs. Section Paloise | Jan 09 | 35 – 10 | 13.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Clermont Auvergne | Jan 09 | 33 – 28 | 5.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Castres Olympique | Jan 30 | Bordeaux-Begles | 12.40 |
| 2 | Brive vs. Biarritz | Jan 30 | Brive | 7.60 |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Montpellier | Jan 30 | La Rochelle | 11.00 |
| 4 | Stade Toulousain vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Jan 30 | Stade Toulousain | 10.60 |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Rugby | Jan 30 | Lyon Rugby | -2.60 |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. Clermont Auvergne | Jan 31 | Clermont Auvergne | -1.00 |
| 7 | Stade Francais Paris vs. RC Toulonnais | Jan 31 | Stade Francais Paris | 6.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »