Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 4.76 | -5.00 | 9.80 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 4.00 | 7.35 | -3.30 |
| Sale Sharks | 3.31 | 4.96 | -1.70 |
| Wasps | 2.53 | 5.66 | -3.10 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.51 | -6.14 | 8.60 |
| Gloucester | 1.54 | -1.02 | 2.60 |
| Northampton Saints | 0.10 | -2.48 | 2.60 |
| Harlequins | 0.00 | -1.08 | 1.10 |
| Bristol | -2.67 | 1.28 | -4.00 |
| London Irish | -2.82 | -8.05 | 5.20 |
| Bath | -6.44 | 2.14 | -8.60 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -7.61 | -3.52 | -4.10 |
| Worcester Warriors | -10.82 | -5.71 | -5.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 94 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. London Irish | Feb 13 | 32 – 49 | 7.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester | Feb 13 | 24 – 15 | 6.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints | Feb 13 | 35 – 20 | 5.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Worcester Warriors | Feb 13 | 36 – 12 | 17.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Harlequins | Feb 13 | 19 – 10 | 9.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Bath | Feb 13 | 41 – 24 | 12.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Leicester Tigers | Feb 20 | Leicester Tigers | -4.40 |
| 2 | Harlequins vs. Wasps | Feb 20 | Harlequins | 2.00 |
| 3 | London Irish vs. Saracens | Feb 20 | Saracens | -3.10 |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs | Feb 20 | Exeter Chiefs | -7.10 |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks | Feb 20 | Northampton Saints | 1.30 |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol | Feb 20 | Bristol | -3.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »