Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19
Team Ratings for Round 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 4.44 | -5.00 | 9.40 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 3.93 | 7.35 | -3.40 |
| Sale Sharks | 2.90 | 4.96 | -2.10 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.87 | -6.14 | 9.00 |
| Wasps | 1.58 | 5.66 | -4.10 |
| Gloucester | 1.14 | -1.02 | 2.20 |
| Harlequins | 0.40 | -1.08 | 1.50 |
| Northampton Saints | -0.39 | -2.48 | 2.10 |
| London Irish | -1.91 | -8.05 | 6.10 |
| Bristol | -2.47 | 1.28 | -3.80 |
| Bath | -5.90 | 2.14 | -8.00 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -7.74 | -3.52 | -4.20 |
| Worcester Warriors | -10.47 | -5.71 | -4.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 106 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Wasps | Feb 26 | 31 – 19 | -1.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Sale Sharks vs. London Irish | Feb 26 | 27 – 27 | 10.50 | FALSE |
| 3 | Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins | Feb 26 | 21 – 29 | -6.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester | Feb 27 | 35 – 23 | 5.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath | Feb 27 | 25 – 30 | 3.70 | FALSE |
| 6 | Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs | Feb 28 | 31 – 34 | 0.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 19
Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons | Mar 05 | Harlequins | 12.60 |
| 2 | Bath vs. Bristol | Mar 06 | Bath | 1.10 |
| 3 | Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints | Mar 06 | Gloucester | 6.00 |
| 4 | London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors | Mar 06 | London Irish | 13.10 |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers | Mar 06 | Saracens | 6.10 |
| 6 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks | Mar 07 | Exeter Chiefs | 5.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »