Top 14 Predictions for Round 20
Team Ratings for Round 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Rochelle | 6.96 | 6.78 | 0.20 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 6.59 | 5.42 | 1.20 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 6.02 | 6.13 | -0.10 |
| Stade Toulousain | 5.86 | 6.83 | -1.00 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 5.14 | 5.09 | 0.00 |
| Lyon Rugby | 5.04 | 4.15 | 0.90 |
| Montpellier | 4.86 | -0.01 | 4.90 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 1.15 | 1.20 | -0.10 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.00 |
| RC Toulonnais | -0.41 | 1.82 | -2.20 |
| Section Paloise | -1.94 | -2.25 | 0.30 |
| Brive | -3.09 | -3.19 | 0.10 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.09 | -2.78 | -1.30 |
| Biarritz | -5.70 | -2.78 | -2.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 129 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. RC Toulonnais | Feb 27 | 17 – 10 | 3.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Clermont Auvergne vs. USA Perpignan | Feb 27 | 52 – 12 | 14.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lyon Rugby vs. Biarritz | Feb 27 | 34 – 15 | 17.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 27 | 45 – 25 | 10.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. La Rochelle | Feb 27 | 16 – 22 | -2.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Paris | Feb 28 | 30 – 3 | 9.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Feb 28 | 12 – 11 | 6.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 20
Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biarritz vs. RC Toulonnais | Mar 06 | Biarritz | 1.20 |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise | Mar 06 | Bordeaux-Begles | 15.00 |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier | Mar 06 | Castres Olympique | 2.60 |
| 4 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby | Mar 06 | Clermont Auvergne | 6.60 |
| 5 | La Rochelle vs. Brive | Mar 06 | La Rochelle | 16.50 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Mar 06 | Racing-Metro 92 | -3.60 |
| 7 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Stade Toulousain | Mar 07 | Stade Francais Paris | 1.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »