NRL Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 18.70 | 19.20 | -0.50 |
| Panthers | 15.98 | 14.26 | 1.70 |
| Rabbitohs | 8.76 | 15.81 | -7.10 |
| Sea Eagles | 3.97 | 10.99 | -7.00 |
| Eels | 3.48 | 2.54 | 0.90 |
| Roosters | 2.61 | 2.23 | 0.40 |
| Sharks | 0.52 | -1.10 | 1.60 |
| Broncos | -2.27 | -8.90 | 6.60 |
| Cowboys | -2.62 | -12.27 | 9.60 |
| Raiders | -2.97 | -1.10 | -1.90 |
| Titans | -3.59 | 1.05 | -4.60 |
| Dragons | -7.45 | -7.99 | 0.50 |
| Warriors | -7.49 | -8.99 | 1.50 |
| Knights | -9.16 | -6.54 | -2.60 |
| Wests Tigers | -9.74 | -10.94 | 1.20 |
| Bulldogs | -10.72 | -10.25 | -0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 80 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Knights | May 13 | 6 – 16 | -0.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Sea Eagles vs. Broncos | May 13 | 0 – 38 | 8.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Rabbitohs | May 14 | 30 – 32 | -18.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Dragons | May 14 | 20 – 16 | 3.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Storm vs. Panthers | May 14 | 6 – 32 | 6.40 | FALSE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Raiders | May 15 | 10 – 30 | 6.50 | FALSE |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Eels | May 15 | 31 – 24 | -2.00 | FALSE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys | May 15 | 12 – 36 | -4.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knights vs. Broncos | May 19 | Broncos | -3.90 |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs | May 20 | Wests Tigers | 4.00 |
| 3 | Eels vs. Sea Eagles | May 20 | Eels | 2.50 |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Warriors | May 21 | Dragons | 5.50 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Storm | May 21 | Storm | -18.30 |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Panthers | May 21 | Panthers | -10.40 |
| 7 | Rabbitohs vs. Raiders | May 22 | Rabbitohs | 14.70 |
| 8 | Titans vs. Sharks | May 22 | Sharks | -1.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Agreed
2 years ago
Hi David, after round 6 the total was 35 correct. You only got 4 correct in round 7 but the total jumps to 40 instead of 39, so your cumulative total has been off by one since then.
2 years ago
This actually dates back to round 1. I originally had the Warriors as having a home game with home ground advantage. I realised when I was doing the forecasts for the later games that this was not sensible so I changed so that the Warriors games played in Australia which are nominally home games, I now treat as on neutral territory. Making that change, the first round Warriors game was predicted correctly adding one to the number of correct predictions. I wanted to back date that change in order to get the ratings correct for future games. You may subtract one from the number of games correctly predicted if you wish.
2 years ago
Knights gonna bit broncos
2 years ago
Congrats
2 years ago
I just wanna list of right winning teams for round 11 please sports master?
2 years ago
Nrl round 11 prediction over & under
2 years ago
Please I want the correct tips for this weekend round 11 game Please.
2 years ago
Correct nrl tips for this week round 11. Can someone help me out. Thanks 😊
2 years ago
Total match points.
2 years ago
I’m interested
2 years ago
Hi David if u can predict on winning team weather 1-12 or 13+ should be very helpful to some of us like punters 😂😂
2 years ago
I’m very much interested ,thanks
2 years ago