NRL Predictions for Round 25
Team Ratings for Round 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 13.26 | 19.20 | -5.90 |
| Panthers | 12.38 | 14.26 | -1.90 |
| Rabbitohs | 8.59 | 15.81 | -7.20 |
| Roosters | 8.23 | 2.23 | 6.00 |
| Sharks | 5.55 | -1.10 | 6.70 |
| Eels | 5.04 | 2.54 | 2.50 |
| Cowboys | 4.43 | -12.27 | 16.70 |
| Raiders | 0.47 | -1.10 | 1.60 |
| Dragons | -3.09 | -7.99 | 4.90 |
| Sea Eagles | -5.16 | 10.99 | -16.20 |
| Broncos | -5.56 | -8.90 | 3.30 |
| Titans | -6.48 | 1.05 | -7.50 |
| Bulldogs | -8.39 | -10.25 | 1.90 |
| Knights | -8.86 | -6.54 | -2.30 |
| Warriors | -10.96 | -8.99 | -2.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -11.45 | -10.94 | -0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 184 matches played, 128 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Eels | Aug 25 | 6 – 53 | -2.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Warriors | Aug 26 | 46 – 12 | 27.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Storm vs. Roosters | Aug 26 | 14 – 18 | 9.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 27 | 48 – 6 | 4.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Bulldogs | Aug 27 | 16 – 0 | 17.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys | Aug 27 | 20 – 10 | 6.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Dragons | Aug 28 | 22 – 24 | -6.00 | TRUE |
| 8 | Titans vs. Knights | Aug 28 | 36 – 26 | 4.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 25
Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Storm | Sep 01 | Storm | -5.20 |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles | Sep 02 | Sea Eagles | -0.20 |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Rabbitohs | Sep 02 | Roosters | 2.60 |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Titans | Sep 03 | Warriors | 1.00 |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Broncos | Sep 03 | Dragons | 5.50 |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Panthers | Sep 03 | Panthers | -4.90 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Sharks | Sep 04 | Sharks | -11.40 |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Raiders | Sep 04 | Raiders | -8.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »