Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 7
Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 6.67 | 2.00 | 4.70 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 5.62 | 5.87 | -0.20 |
| Waikato | 5.49 | 2.00 | 3.50 |
| North Harbour | 4.26 | 2.31 | 1.90 |
| Bay of Plenty | 4.15 | 0.10 | 4.10 |
| Auckland | 4.12 | 4.50 | -0.40 |
| Wellington | 3.03 | 3.58 | -0.50 |
| Tasman | 2.97 | 5.94 | -3.00 |
| Taranaki | -0.54 | 3.63 | -4.20 |
| Otago | -1.00 | -1.63 | 0.60 |
| Counties Manukau | -5.25 | -6.32 | 1.10 |
| Northland | -5.81 | -6.68 | 0.90 |
| Southland | -10.09 | -7.01 | -3.10 |
| Manawatu | -11.29 | -5.97 | -5.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taranaki vs. Manawatu | Sep 16 | 34 – 24 | 14.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury | Sep 17 | 39 – 44 | -10.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Auckland vs. Tasman | Sep 17 | 30 – 27 | 3.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington | Sep 17 | 12 – 19 | 6.50 | FALSE |
| 5 | Bay of Plenty vs. Southland | Sep 18 | 54 – 21 | 15.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Otago vs. Waikato | Sep 18 | 27 – 20 | -5.30 | FALSE |
| 7 | Northland vs. North Harbour | Sep 18 | 21 – 48 | -5.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 21 | Taranaki | 7.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi Mr. David,
Do you also predict AFL & Soccer?
Let me know if you do.
Regards
Mathew
2 years ago
I might at some stage predict AFL, but it would require some work. Basketball and netball could also be predicted using this methodology, but not football (soccer) or hockey due to the low scores and prevalence of draws. I have investigated methods for predicting those other sports, but there is a limit as to what I wish to do as a single person producing predictions.
2 years ago
Soccer and all other sports
2 years ago