March 14, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.79 17.95 -1.20
Blues 13.40 12.34 1.10
Chiefs 10.62 8.81 1.80
Hurricanes 10.10 9.59 0.50
Brumbies 7.01 6.64 0.40
Highlanders 2.47 5.04 -2.60
Reds 2.41 1.89 0.50
Waratahs -2.08 -2.50 0.40
Rebels -5.75 -6.19 0.40
Western Force -7.07 -5.54 -1.50
Moana Pasifika -9.25 -8.91 -0.30
Fijian Drua -10.01 -10.50 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 10 28 – 7 10.80 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 10 34 – 27 -0.90 FALSE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Mar 11 25 – 24 -23.10 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 11 19 – 25 0.90 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 11 23 – 17 8.40 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 11 21 – 18 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Mar 17 Hurricanes 17.70
2 Chiefs vs. Rebels Mar 18 Chiefs 21.90
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 18 Blues 0.10
4 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 18 Brumbies 21.80
5 Highlanders vs. Western Force Mar 19 Highlanders 15.00
6 Reds vs. Fijian Drua Mar 19 Reds 15.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »