July 4, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.40 12.99 -0.60
Eels 7.54 6.78 0.80
Rabbitohs 7.47 9.35 -1.90
Storm 6.52 11.21 -4.70
Cowboys 5.63 6.23 -0.60
Sharks 3.54 4.50 -1.00
Broncos -0.30 -5.92 5.60
Raiders -1.18 1.98 -3.20
Roosters -1.71 7.64 -9.40
Warriors -2.26 -11.12 8.90
Knights -3.53 -9.53 6.00
Sea Eagles -4.05 -5.26 1.20
Titans -4.57 -6.32 1.70
Dragons -5.39 -2.73 -2.70
Dolphins -7.63 -10.00 2.40
Wests Tigers -10.98 -13.52 2.50
Bulldogs -13.50 -8.29 -5.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 29 52 – 16 8.80 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Jun 30 6 – 28 -1.20 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Panthers Jun 30 16 – 34 -0.70 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Titans Jul 01 26 – 22 7.10 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Jul 01 74 – 0 13.80 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Dolphins Jul 01 24 – 16 11.00 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Knights Jul 02 0 – 66 -0.70 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 02 18 – 16 0.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Jul 06 Sharks -11.50
2 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 07 Raiders -1.20
3 Eels vs. Warriors Jul 08 Eels 15.80
4 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jul 08 Rabbitohs 24.00
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Jul 09 Titans 6.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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