Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 4
Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 11.50 | 9.44 | 2.10 |
| Wellington | 9.80 | 8.72 | 1.10 |
| Auckland | 4.99 | 2.15 | 2.80 |
| North Harbour | 4.73 | 7.75 | -3.00 |
| Waikato | 2.76 | 3.71 | -1.00 |
| Bay of Plenty | 2.72 | 4.55 | -1.80 |
| Tasman | 2.71 | 2.20 | 0.50 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 2.23 | 5.12 | -2.90 |
| Taranaki | -0.74 | -2.98 | 2.20 |
| Otago | -1.01 | 0.62 | -1.60 |
| Northland | -5.45 | -3.92 | -1.50 |
| Counties Manukau | -6.02 | -7.44 | 1.40 |
| Southland | -10.86 | -12.27 | 1.40 |
| Manawatu | -13.88 | -14.18 | 0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 31 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manawatu vs. Northland | Aug 25 | 31 – 30 | -7.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Auckland vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 26 | 41 – 22 | 3.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 26 | 26 – 29 | 0.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Otago vs. Southland | Aug 26 | 31 – 21 | 13.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Canterbury vs. Wellington | Aug 27 | 31 – 36 | 6.40 | FALSE |
| 6 | Tasman vs. North Harbour | Aug 27 | 20 – 15 | -0.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | Waikato vs. Counties Manukau | Aug 27 | 37 – 15 | 10.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auckland vs. Manawatu | Aug 30 | Auckland | 21.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Good Morning Mr Scott,
May I ask if you have team sheets for the next matches when publishing your predictions?
I have been an avid (and satisfied) follower of your predictions for years.
Do you perhaps plan to do something similar for the upcoming Rugby World Cup? – hope you will
Thank You
Bertie
9 months ago
I don’t use the team composition in making my predictions, so team sheets are irrelevant.
9 months ago