Predictions for the RWC 2023 Cup Quarter-Finals
Team Ratings for the RWC Cup Quarter-Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 20.71 | 16.32 | 4.40 |
| Ireland | 18.78 | 15.46 | 3.30 |
| South Africa | 17.93 | 16.35 | 1.60 |
| France | 15.25 | 12.48 | 2.80 |
| Scotland | 8.28 | 6.81 | 1.50 |
| England | 6.68 | 4.22 | 2.50 |
| Wales | 3.79 | 0.75 | 3.00 |
| Argentina | 2.95 | 1.23 | 1.70 |
| Australia | 1.84 | 2.63 | -0.80 |
| Fiji | -0.05 | 0.58 | -0.60 |
| Samoa | -0.39 | -0.50 | 0.10 |
| Georgia | -4.61 | -2.56 | -2.00 |
| Japan | -5.54 | -6.10 | 0.60 |
| Italy | -9.63 | -8.84 | -0.80 |
| Tonga | -12.03 | -11.38 | -0.70 |
| Portugal | -13.18 | -13.61 | 0.40 |
| Uruguay | -16.17 | -15.47 | -0.70 |
| Namibia | -18.85 | -13.18 | -5.70 |
| Chile | -19.97 | -15.13 | -4.80 |
| Romania | -22.74 | -17.02 | -5.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 40 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand vs. Uruguay | Oct 05 | 73 – 0 | 33.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | France vs. Italy | Oct 06 | 60 – 7 | 29.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Wales vs. Georgia | Oct 07 | 43 – 19 | 6.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | England vs. Samoa | Oct 07 | 18 – 17 | 8.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Ireland vs. Scotland | Oct 07 | 36 – 14 | 9.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Japan vs. Argentina | Oct 08 | 27 – 39 | -7.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Fiji vs. Portugal | Oct 08 | 23 – 24 | 14.60 | FALSE |
| 8 | Tonga vs. Romania | Oct 08 | 45 – 24 | 9.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for the RWC Cup Quarter-Finals
Here are the predictions for the RWC Cup Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ireland vs. New Zealand | Oct 15 | New Zealand | -1.90 |
| 2 | Wales vs. Argentina | Oct 15 | Wales | 0.80 |
| 3 | France vs. South Africa | Oct 16 | France | 4.30 |
| 4 | England vs. Fiji | Oct 16 | England | 6.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Just reviewing the previous errors in the RWC predictions it looks like there might be some overestimation of southern hemisphere teams. Would you have any insight into this? Is there potentially bias when they play other southern hemisphere teams more regularly? i.e. one heavily overrated team is influencing the rating of other teams that they play?
7 months ago
Ignoring Namibia, Rumania, Chile and Georgia, the Northern Hemisphere teams have increased in ratings buy an average of 1.2. The Southern Hemisphere teams by 1.1. So, probably not. But Southern Hemishphere teams don’t really like playing in the Northern Hemisphere and, it’s even more so, vice versa.
7 months ago
Don’t think I overestimated southern hemisphere teams in the quarterfinals at least. I actually missed two southern hemisphere winners.
7 months ago