Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 6.76 | -0.89 | 7.60 |
| Leicester Tigers | 4.41 | 6.13 | -1.70 |
| Sale Sharks | 3.71 | 6.46 | -2.80 |
| Harlequins | 3.23 | 1.93 | 1.30 |
| Saracens | 2.66 | 6.82 | -4.20 |
| Bristol | 2.29 | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| Northampton Saints | 1.56 | 2.66 | -1.10 |
| Bath | -0.54 | -1.26 | 0.70 |
| Gloucester | -3.58 | -1.45 | -2.10 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -9.75 | -10.63 | 0.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 15 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gloucester vs. Saracens | Oct 28 | 3 – 24 | 4.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Harlequins | Oct 28 | 21 – 23 | 6.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks | Oct 29 | 43 – 0 | 2.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bath vs. Leicester Tigers | Oct 29 | 24 – 25 | 1.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints | Oct 30 | 14 – 16 | -6.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester | Nov 04 | Sale Sharks | 13.30 |
| 2 | Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons | Nov 04 | Harlequins | 19.00 |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Bath | Nov 05 | Northampton Saints | 8.10 |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers | Nov 05 | Saracens | 4.30 |
| 5 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol | Nov 06 | Exeter Chiefs | 10.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »