October 31, 2023

Top 14 Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.74 7.24 -0.50
Stade Rochelais 5.88 6.40 -0.50
Racing 92 4.77 3.42 1.30
Bordeaux Begles 3.67 4.07 -0.40
Toulon 3.24 3.11 0.10
Stade Francais 2.86 2.62 0.20
Lyon 2.43 2.97 -0.50
Montpellier 1.33 2.09 -0.80
Castres Olympique 1.21 -0.39 1.60
Section Paloise 1.10 -0.44 1.50
Clermont 0.74 1.47 -0.70
Bayonne -0.92 -1.32 0.40
USA Perpignan -6.28 -3.64 -2.60
US Oyonnax -9.17 -10.00 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Oct 30 16 – 3 1.90 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Oct 30 41 – 22 7.40 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Oct 30 16 – 19 3.70 FALSE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Oct 30 24 – 27 12.20 FALSE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 30 29 – 22 9.90 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. US Oyonnax Oct 30 41 – 7 17.80 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Oct 30 24 – 39 0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier Nov 04 Bordeaux Begles 8.80
2 Clermont vs. Bayonne Nov 04 Clermont 8.20
3 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Nov 04 Racing 92 8.80
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 04 Section Paloise 0.90
5 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Nov 04 Stade Francais 8.20
6 US Oyonnax vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 04 Stade Rochelais -8.50
7 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Nov 04 Toulon -3.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »