Top 14 Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 5.90 | 7.24 | -1.30 |
| Racing 92 | 4.93 | 3.42 | 1.50 |
| Stade Rochelais | 4.93 | 6.40 | -1.50 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 3.82 | 4.07 | -0.30 |
| Stade Francais | 3.36 | 2.62 | 0.70 |
| Toulon | 3.32 | 3.11 | 0.20 |
| Lyon | 1.56 | 2.97 | -1.40 |
| Clermont | 1.51 | 1.47 | 0.00 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.45 | -0.39 | 1.80 |
| Section Paloise | 1.01 | -0.44 | 1.40 |
| Montpellier | 0.33 | 2.09 | -1.80 |
| Bayonne | -0.78 | -1.32 | 0.50 |
| USA Perpignan | -5.23 | -3.64 | -1.60 |
| US Oyonnax | -8.49 | -10.00 | 1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 49 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Section Paloise | Nov 18 | 35 – 16 | 3.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain | Nov 18 | 31 – 23 | 1.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Toulon | Nov 18 | 27 – 30 | 5.50 | FALSE |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 | Nov 18 | 9 – 13 | 5.90 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 18 | 25 – 21 | 8.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | US Oyonnax vs. Lyon | Nov 18 | 38 – 20 | -5.00 | FALSE |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier | Nov 18 | 23 – 16 | 0.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan | Nov 25 | Bordeaux Begles | 15.60 |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Bayonne | Nov 25 | Lyon | 8.80 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. US Oyonnax | Nov 25 | Montpellier | 15.30 |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais | Nov 25 | Racing 92 | 6.50 |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais | Nov 25 | Section Paloise | 4.20 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont | Nov 25 | Stade Toulousain | 10.90 |
| 7 | Toulon vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 25 | Toulon | 8.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »