Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 8.88 | 6.82 | 2.10 |
| Sale Sharks | 4.80 | 6.46 | -1.70 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 3.99 | -0.89 | 4.90 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.91 | 6.13 | -3.20 |
| Northampton Saints | 2.30 | 2.66 | -0.40 |
| Harlequins | 2.13 | 1.93 | 0.20 |
| Bristol | 1.34 | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| Bath | 0.93 | -1.26 | 2.20 |
| Gloucester | -4.05 | -1.45 | -2.60 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -12.49 | -10.63 | -1.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 30 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Bristol | Nov 18 | 20 – 19 | 6.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons | Nov 18 | 40 – 22 | 24.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints | Nov 19 | 26 – 17 | 6.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Saracens | Nov 19 | 10 – 38 | 4.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester | Nov 20 | 25 – 24 | 16.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins | Nov 25 | Northampton Saints | 6.20 |
| 2 | Sale Sharks vs. Bath | Nov 25 | Sale Sharks | 9.90 |
| 3 | Saracens vs. Bristol | Nov 26 | Saracens | 13.50 |
| 4 | Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers | Nov 26 | Leicester Tigers | -1.00 |
| 5 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs | Nov 27 | Exeter Chiefs | -10.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi, may i ask how the margin of victory prediction is calculated?
On your current ratings the differnce between Gloucester vs Leicester is more than 6 points but the prediction is only 1 ?
thanks
6 months ago
The difference is due to home ground advantage. The prediction is simply home team rating – away team rating + home ground advantage. No home ground advantage if played on neutral ground (e.g. final at Twickenham).
6 months ago