Top 14 Predictions for Round 20
Team Ratings for Round 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.54 | 7.24 | 0.30 |
| Stade Rochelais | 6.04 | 6.40 | -0.40 |
| Toulon | 4.34 | 3.11 | 1.20 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 3.79 | 4.07 | -0.30 |
| Stade Francais | 3.23 | 2.62 | 0.60 |
| Racing 92 | 3.12 | 3.42 | -0.30 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.89 | -0.39 | 1.30 |
| Section Paloise | 0.40 | -0.44 | 0.80 |
| Montpellier | 0.22 | 2.09 | -1.90 |
| Bayonne | 0.14 | -1.32 | 1.50 |
| Clermont | -0.05 | 1.47 | -1.50 |
| Lyon | -0.79 | 2.97 | -3.80 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.13 | -3.64 | 0.50 |
| US Oyonnax | -8.12 | -10.00 | 1.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 133 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toulon vs. Montpellier | Mar 24 | 54 – 7 | 8.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 | Mar 24 | 21 – 23 | 5.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Section Paloise | Mar 24 | 31 – 28 | 6.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Lyon | Mar 24 | 22 – 13 | 10.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | US Oyonnax vs. USA Perpignan | Mar 24 | 14 – 15 | 1.80 | FALSE |
| 6 | Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais | Mar 24 | 13 – 12 | 0.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain | Mar 25 | 31 – 28 | 2.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 20
Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles | Mar 31 | Lyon | 1.90 |
| 2 | Montpellier vs. Stade Francais | Mar 31 | Montpellier | 3.50 |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Clermont | Mar 31 | Racing 92 | 9.70 |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. US Oyonnax | Mar 31 | Stade Rochelais | 20.70 |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise | Mar 31 | Stade Toulousain | 13.60 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique | Mar 31 | USA Perpignan | 2.50 |
| 7 | Bayonne vs. Toulon | Apr 01 | Bayonne | 2.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »