AFL Predictions for Week 5
Team Ratings for Week 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Demons | 16.86 | 13.91 | 3.00 |
| GWS Giants | 14.55 | 12.60 | 1.90 |
| Geelong Cats | 12.35 | 10.50 | 1.90 |
| Carlton Blues | 11.49 | 9.73 | 1.80 |
| Brisbane Lions | 11.36 | 17.47 | -6.10 |
| Sydney Swans | 11.09 | 9.23 | 1.90 |
| Collingwood | 10.45 | 14.87 | -4.40 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 8.27 | 8.83 | -0.60 |
| Western Bulldogs | 8.14 | 6.04 | 2.10 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 5.17 | 0.40 | 4.80 |
| Adelaide Crows | 4.76 | 9.56 | -4.80 |
| St Kilda Saints | 1.39 | -0.63 | 2.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -3.85 | -4.60 | 0.80 |
| Richmond Tigers | -6.23 | -6.13 | -0.10 |
| Essendon Bombers | -13.24 | -17.70 | 4.50 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -16.31 | -11.08 | -5.20 |
| North Melbourne | -26.94 | -25.73 | -1.20 |
| West Coast Eagles | -45.17 | -43.10 | -2.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 29 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood | Mar 28 | 72 – 92 | 14.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues | Mar 29 | 81 – 137 | -35.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows | Mar 29 | 69 – 34 | 5.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints | Mar 30 | 71 – 67 | -17.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons | Mar 30 | 89 – 96 | 2.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles | Mar 31 | 106 – 30 | 58.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Sydney Swans | Mar 31 | 82 – 77 | -12.10 | FALSE |
| 8 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 01 | 70 – 106 | -17.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 5
Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons | Apr 04 | Melbourne Demons | -3.10 |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions vs. North Melbourne | Apr 05 | Brisbane Lions | 47.30 |
| 3 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 05 | Port Adelaide Power | 30.50 |
| 4 | West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 06 | Sydney Swans | -47.30 |
| 5 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 06 | Fremantle Dockers | 2.70 |
| 6 | Western Bulldogs vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 06 | Western Bulldogs | 4.80 |
| 7 | Gold Coast Suns vs. GWS Giants | Apr 07 | GWS Giants | -9.40 |
| 8 | Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 07 | Richmond Tigers | 1.40 |
| 9 | Collingwood vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Apr 07 | Collingwood | 26.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »