NRL Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 14.23 | 14.73 | -0.50 |
| Broncos | 8.38 | 9.07 | -0.70 |
| Storm | 6.03 | 6.15 | -0.10 |
| Roosters | 5.62 | 3.08 | 2.50 |
| Cowboys | 2.91 | 2.47 | 0.40 |
| Sharks | 1.54 | 2.94 | -1.40 |
| Knights | 0.84 | 1.84 | -1.00 |
| Warriors | 0.12 | -0.07 | 0.20 |
| Eels | -0.12 | 0.14 | -0.30 |
| Sea Eagles | -0.12 | -0.48 | 0.40 |
| Rabbitohs | -2.50 | 0.87 | -3.40 |
| Raiders | -2.77 | -4.31 | 1.50 |
| Dolphins | -5.16 | -7.09 | 1.90 |
| Dragons | -7.59 | -6.93 | -0.70 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.27 | -13.15 | 2.90 |
| Bulldogs | -10.92 | -13.35 | 2.40 |
| Titans | -12.21 | -7.89 | -4.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Panthers | Mar 28 | 16 – 22 | -5.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Mar 29 | 20 – 16 | 12.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Mar 29 | 38 – 12 | 6.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 30 | 20 – 12 | -6.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Titans vs. Dolphins | Mar 30 | 14 – 30 | -2.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Knights | Mar 31 | 20 – 12 | 6.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Mar 31 | 36 – 22 | 6.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 01 | 16 – 17 | 15.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Broncos | Apr 04 | Storm | 0.60 |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Roosters | Apr 05 | Roosters | -13.50 |
| 3 | Knights vs. Dragons | Apr 05 | Knights | 11.40 |
| 4 | Rabbitohs vs. Warriors | Apr 06 | Rabbitohs | 4.40 |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Panthers | Apr 06 | Panthers | -11.30 |
| 6 | Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 06 | Dolphins | 8.10 |
| 7 | Cowboys vs. Titans | Apr 07 | Cowboys | 18.10 |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Eels | Apr 07 | Raiders | 0.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Good 👍 work, I would like to say thank you very much helping me tipping my NRL games. Thanks once again, keep up the good work.
4 weeks ago