NFL Predictions for the Wild Card Games
Team Ratings for the Wild Card Games
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 9.51 | 1.60 | 7.90 |
| Patriots | 8.00 | -6.88 | 14.90 |
| Rams | 7.89 | 3.32 | 4.60 |
| Lions | 5.54 | 9.26 | -3.70 |
| Bills | 5.24 | 8.28 | -3.00 |
| Jaguars | 4.94 | -6.28 | 11.20 |
| Texans | 4.88 | 0.65 | 4.20 |
| Vikings | 3.09 | 2.67 | 0.40 |
| Broncos | 3.07 | 3.65 | -0.60 |
| Ravens | 2.84 | 11.27 | -8.40 |
| Packers | 2.80 | 5.92 | -3.10 |
| 49ers | 2.40 | -3.05 | 5.40 |
| Chargers | 1.77 | 2.67 | -0.90 |
| Eagles | 1.34 | 12.46 | -11.10 |
| Steelers | 1.13 | -0.33 | 1.50 |
| Bears | 0.49 | -3.03 | 3.50 |
| Bengals | 0.48 | 3.45 | -3.00 |
| Colts | -1.15 | -5.52 | 4.40 |
| Falcons | -1.19 | -3.22 | 2.00 |
| Chiefs | -1.92 | 3.00 | -4.90 |
| Browns | -2.14 | -9.54 | 7.40 |
| Giants | -2.18 | -7.54 | 5.40 |
| Saints | -2.73 | -5.63 | 2.90 |
| Cowboys | -4.12 | -3.23 | -0.90 |
| Dolphins | -4.39 | 0.72 | -5.10 |
| Buccaneers | -4.55 | 3.86 | -8.40 |
| Commanders | -5.09 | 2.74 | -7.80 |
| Raiders | -6.18 | -5.45 | -0.70 |
| Panthers | -6.23 | -7.28 | 1.10 |
| Cardinals | -7.86 | 0.58 | -8.40 |
| Titans | -9.33 | -9.40 | 0.10 |
| Jets | -10.49 | -3.87 | -6.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 272 matches played, 163 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49ers vs. Seahawks | Jan 04 | 3 – 13 | -4.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Buccaneers vs. Panthers | Jan 04 | 16 – 14 | 2.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Falcons vs. Saints | Jan 05 | 19 – 17 | 2.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bills vs. Jets | Jan 05 | 35 – 8 | 14.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Bears vs. Lions | Jan 05 | 16 – 19 | -4.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Bengals vs. Browns | Jan 05 | 18 – 20 | 5.80 | FALSE |
| 7 | Broncos vs. Chargers | Jan 05 | 19 – 3 | -0.80 | FALSE |
| 8 | Texans vs. Colts | Jan 05 | 38 – 30 | 6.70 | TRUE |
| 9 | Jaguars vs. Titans | Jan 05 | 41 – 7 | 11.30 | TRUE |
| 10 | Rams vs. Cardinals | Jan 05 | 37 – 20 | 16.60 | TRUE |
| 11 | Raiders vs. Chiefs | Jan 05 | 14 – 12 | -5.30 | FALSE |
| 12 | Vikings vs. Packers | Jan 05 | 16 – 3 | -1.40 | FALSE |
| 13 | Patriots vs. Dolphins | Jan 05 | 38 – 10 | 10.10 | TRUE |
| 14 | Giants vs. Cowboys | Jan 05 | 34 – 17 | -0.20 | FALSE |
| 15 | Eagles vs. Commanders | Jan 05 | 17 – 24 | 10.60 | FALSE |
| 16 | Steelers vs. Ravens | Jan 05 | 26 – 24 | -1.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for the Wild Card Games
Here are the predictions for the Wild Card Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Rams | Jan 11 | Rams | -13.10 |
| 2 | Bears vs. Packers | Jan 11 | Packers | -1.30 |
| 3 | Jaguars vs. Bills | Jan 12 | Jaguars | 0.70 |
| 4 | Eagles vs. 49ers | Jan 12 | 49ers | -0.10 |
| 5 | Patriots vs. Chargers | Jan 12 | Patriots | 7.20 |
| 6 | Steelers vs. Texans | Jan 13 | Texans | -2.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »