Posts from March 2026 (35)

March 3, 2026

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

Not sure how I missed posting this one, but here it is for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.20 11.56 2.60
Bordeaux Begles 5.70 4.78 0.90
Montpellier 4.13 -0.21 4.30
Clermont 3.69 1.88 1.80
Section Paloise 2.97 2.21 0.80
Stade Rochelais 2.19 1.22 1.00
Stade Francais 1.55 -2.17 3.70
Lyon 1.09 -0.45 1.50
Racing 92 0.92 1.88 -1.00
Toulon 0.18 3.49 -3.30
Castres Olympique -0.09 0.59 -0.70
Bayonne -2.01 1.48 -3.50
USA Perpignan -4.63 -3.37 -1.30
Montauban -17.01 -10.00 -7.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique Feb 15 57 – 32 11.30 TRUE
2 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Feb 15 36 – 41 4.30 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Montauban Feb 15 73 – 12 22.40 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Montpellier Feb 15 33 – 43 5.60 FALSE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Feb 15 40 – 24 -2.30 FALSE
6 Toulon vs. Clermont Feb 15 14 – 34 4.50 FALSE
7 Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 16 9 – 13 -6.40 TRUE

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 01 Castres Olympique 4.20
2 Clermont vs. Bayonne Mar 01 Clermont 12.20
3 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 01 Lyon 7.40
4 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Mar 01 Montpellier 9.70
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Mar 01 Stade Francais 12.70
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Montauban Mar 01 Stade Toulousain 37.70
7 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 02 Section Paloise 3.80
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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 9.16 13.41 -4.20
Bulls 8.56 8.86 -0.30
Glasgow 7.63 6.18 1.40
Stormers 5.72 4.17 1.60
Munster 1.90 3.65 -1.80
Edinburgh 1.22 2.67 -1.50
Lions 0.76 -1.19 2.00
Ulster 0.61 -3.24 3.80
Sharks -1.06 1.29 -2.30
Connacht -1.19 -1.39 0.20
Scarlets -1.82 -0.54 -1.30
Cardiff Rugby -2.00 -2.74 0.70
Ospreys -2.46 -2.15 -0.30
Benetton -4.94 -2.32 -2.60
Dragons -10.01 -15.66 5.60
Zebre -12.09 -11.02 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Leinster Feb 28 8 – 7 -5.60 FALSE
2 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Feb 28 24 – 19 11.50 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Stormers Mar 01 24 – 10 -5.00 FALSE
4 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 01 41 – 12 9.60 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Glasgow Mar 01 15 – 10 -2.90 FALSE
6 Dragons vs. Benetton Mar 01 15 – 15 2.50 FALSE
7 Munster vs. Zebre Mar 01 21 – 7 22.00 TRUE
8 Ospreys vs. Ulster Mar 01 21 – 10 2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Mar 14 Edinburgh 7.60
2 Connacht vs. Scarlets Mar 14 Connacht 7.60
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 15 Bulls 4.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.79 11.56 3.20
Bordeaux Begles 5.09 4.78 0.30
Montpellier 4.63 -0.21 4.80
Clermont 4.09 1.88 2.20
Section Paloise 3.58 2.21 1.40
Stade Rochelais 2.55 1.22 1.30
Stade Francais 2.05 -2.17 4.20
Lyon 0.64 -0.45 1.10
Toulon 0.63 3.49 -2.90
Racing 92 0.41 1.88 -1.50
Castres Olympique -0.45 0.59 -1.00
Bayonne -2.41 1.48 -3.90
USA Perpignan -5.13 -3.37 -1.80
Montauban -17.59 -10.00 -7.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 01 26 – 31 4.20 FALSE
2 Clermont vs. Bayonne Mar 01 38 – 15 12.20 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 01 13 – 13 7.40 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Mar 01 41 – 17 9.70 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Mar 01 42 – 21 12.70 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Montauban Mar 01 68 – 13 37.70 TRUE
7 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 02 39 – 17 3.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Montpellier Mar 22 Clermont 6.00
2 Montauban vs. Bayonne Mar 22 Bayonne -8.70
3 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Mar 22 Racing 92 7.40
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise Mar 22 Stade Rochelais 5.50
5 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Mar 22 Toulon 5.10
6 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Mar 22 USA Perpignan 0.70
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 23 Stade Toulousain -3.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 11.51 12.36 -0.80
Blues 8.44 8.91 -0.50
Hurricanes 8.35 8.29 0.10
Crusaders 7.72 8.41 -0.70
Brumbies 7.63 5.59 2.00
Reds 1.23 1.74 -0.50
Highlanders -2.78 -3.06 0.30
Waratahs -4.28 -5.84 1.60
Western Force -6.33 -6.29 -0.00
Fijian Drua -8.18 -7.64 -0.50
Moana Pasifika -8.72 -7.88 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 46.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Western Force Feb 27 19 – 35 2.60 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Feb 27 31 – 14 6.60 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Feb 28 25 – 20 -14.50 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 28 33 – 43 10.40 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Blues Feb 28 30 – 27 2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 06 Chiefs 25.20
2 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Mar 06 Hurricanes -9.10
3 Highlanders vs. Western Force Mar 07 Highlanders 7.00
4 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 07 Blues 5.70
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 07 Brumbies 11.40

 

Question wording

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It’s impressive that someone has done a poll in the US with only 1/3 of respondents wanting to abolish ICE. It was Third Way, who would like you to think of them as moderate.

When you look more closely you can see how it was done. The 34% figure is for “We need to abolish ICE and halt all immigration enforcement inside the country”.  These two policy changes are not especially closely linked — the US had immigration enforcement for a long time before creating ICE — and the first proposal, rather than the more extreme second one, is given the headline.

 

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