AFL Predictions for Week 9
Team Ratings for Week 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 25.00 | 0.56 | 24.40 |
| Brisbane Lions | 24.41 | 26.20 | -1.80 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 22.35 | 22.83 | -0.50 |
| Geelong Cats | 20.91 | 26.75 | -5.80 |
| Western Bulldogs | 14.93 | 26.06 | -11.10 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 11.39 | 6.56 | 4.80 |
| Collingwood | 11.10 | 11.76 | -0.70 |
| Adelaide Crows | 10.17 | 15.32 | -5.10 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 7.64 | 10.24 | -2.60 |
| GWS Giants | 2.41 | 9.54 | -7.10 |
| St Kilda Saints | 1.03 | -7.63 | 8.70 |
| Melbourne Demons | 0.12 | 1.64 | -1.50 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -8.13 | -14.65 | 6.50 |
| Carlton Blues | -8.62 | -4.77 | -3.90 |
| North Melbourne | -11.79 | -21.71 | 9.90 |
| Essendon Bombers | -25.32 | -27.89 | 2.60 |
| Richmond Tigers | -41.60 | -29.44 | -12.20 |
| West Coast Eagles | -43.99 | -39.36 | -4.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 63 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 23 | 60 – 126 | 12.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Richmond Tigers vs. Melbourne Demons | Apr 24 | 72 – 126 | -33.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 25 | 112 – 63 | 21.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Essendon Bombers vs. Collingwood | Apr 25 | 60 – 137 | -23.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 25 | 95 – 65 | -26.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 25 | 103 – 89 | 34.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | St Kilda Saints vs. West Coast Eagles | Apr 26 | 143 – 42 | 48.20 | TRUE |
| 8 | Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows | Apr 26 | 127 – 75 | 20.50 | TRUE |
| 9 | GWS Giants vs. North Melbourne | Apr 26 | 105 – 98 | 28.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 9
Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Collingwood vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Apr 30 | Hawthorn Hawks | -11.20 |
| 2 | Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 01 | Western Bulldogs | 14.50 |
| 3 | Adelaide Crows vs. Port Adelaide Power | May 01 | Adelaide Crows | 18.30 |
| 4 | Essendon Bombers vs. Brisbane Lions | May 02 | Brisbane Lions | -38.70 |
| 5 | West Coast Eagles vs. Richmond Tigers | May 02 | West Coast Eagles | 8.60 |
| 6 | Geelong Cats vs. North Melbourne | May 02 | Geelong Cats | 43.70 |
| 7 | Carlton Blues vs. St Kilda Saints | May 02 | St Kilda Saints | -9.70 |
| 8 | Sydney Swans vs. Melbourne Demons | May 03 | Sydney Swans | 35.90 |
| 9 | Gold Coast Suns vs. GWS Giants | May 03 | Gold Coast Suns | 16.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »