Top 14 Predictions for Round 24
Team Ratings for Round 24
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 14.41 | 11.56 | 2.80 |
| Montpellier | 5.80 | -0.21 | 6.00 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.11 | 4.78 | 0.30 |
| Section Paloise | 4.39 | 2.21 | 2.20 |
| Clermont | 4.07 | 1.88 | 2.20 |
| Stade Rochelais | 4.03 | 1.22 | 2.80 |
| Stade Francais | 3.94 | -2.17 | 6.10 |
| Racing 92 | 2.37 | 1.88 | 0.50 |
| Toulon | -0.17 | 3.49 | -3.70 |
| Lyon | -0.92 | -0.45 | -0.50 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.06 | 0.59 | -1.70 |
| Bayonne | -2.89 | 1.48 | -4.40 |
| USA Perpignan | -5.15 | -3.37 | -1.80 |
| Montauban | -21.04 | -10.00 | -11.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 161 matches played, 125 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles | May 10 | 38 – 40 | -1.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Clermont vs. USA Perpignan | May 10 | 45 – 14 | 14.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Montauban | May 10 | 59 – 7 | 32.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique | May 10 | 27 – 15 | 11.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Lyon | May 10 | 59 – 17 | 9.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain | May 10 | 27 – 51 | -6.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais | May 11 | 24 – 26 | 5.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 24
Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan | May 17 | Bordeaux Begles | 16.80 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier | May 17 | Montpellier | -0.40 |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Bayonne | May 17 | Lyon | 8.50 |
| 4 | Montauban vs. Stade Francais | May 17 | Stade Francais | -18.50 |
| 5 | Racing 92 vs. Toulon | May 17 | Racing 92 | 9.00 |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. Clermont | May 17 | Section Paloise | 6.80 |
| 7 | Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain | May 17 | Stade Toulousain | -3.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »