AFL Predictions for Week 13
Team Ratings for Week 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 29.22 | 26.75 | 2.50 |
| Sydney Swans | 20.04 | 0.56 | 19.50 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 16.00 | 6.56 | 9.40 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 15.32 | 22.83 | -7.50 |
| Brisbane Lions | 13.30 | 26.20 | -12.90 |
| Adelaide Crows | 12.11 | 15.32 | -3.20 |
| Western Bulldogs | 9.59 | 26.06 | -16.50 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 9.14 | 10.24 | -1.10 |
| Collingwood | 6.45 | 11.76 | -5.30 |
| Melbourne Demons | 4.23 | 1.64 | 2.60 |
| GWS Giants | 2.88 | 9.54 | -6.70 |
| St Kilda Saints | 0.52 | -7.63 | 8.10 |
| Carlton Blues | -2.36 | -4.77 | 2.40 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -10.24 | -14.65 | 4.40 |
| North Melbourne | -12.25 | -21.71 | 9.50 |
| Essendon Bombers | -28.73 | -27.89 | -0.80 |
| West Coast Eagles | -36.07 | -39.36 | 3.30 |
| Richmond Tigers | -37.15 | -29.44 | -7.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 99 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows | May 21 | 75 – 66 | 15.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers | May 22 | 74 – 56 | -13.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Fremantle Dockers vs. St Kilda Saints | May 22 | 104 – 74 | 25.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns | May 23 | 111 – 105 | -13.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. Sydney Swans | May 23 | 107 – 80 | 18.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles | May 23 | 92 – 82 | 61.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues | May 23 | 58 – 92 | 9.60 | FALSE |
| 8 | GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions | May 24 | 166 – 88 | -12.40 | FALSE |
| 9 | Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne Demons | May 24 | 93 – 90 | 5.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 13
Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Kilda Saints vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 28 | Hawthorn Hawks | -3.80 |
| 2 | Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats | May 29 | Geelong Cats | -20.60 |
| 3 | Sydney Swans vs. Richmond Tigers | May 30 | Sydney Swans | 68.20 |
| 4 | Brisbane Lions vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 30 | Brisbane Lions | 8.30 |
| 5 | Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood | May 30 | Western Bulldogs | 3.10 |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants | May 31 | Melbourne Demons | 1.30 |
| 7 | West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers | May 31 | West Coast Eagles | 3.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »