AFL Predictions for Week 17
Team Ratings for Week 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 27.95 | 26.75 | 1.20 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 24.60 | 6.56 | 18.00 |
| Sydney Swans | 19.39 | 0.56 | 18.80 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 18.85 | 22.83 | -4.00 |
| Adelaide Crows | 16.65 | 15.32 | 1.30 |
| Brisbane Lions | 11.90 | 26.20 | -14.30 |
| Western Bulldogs | 7.28 | 26.06 | -18.80 |
| Collingwood | 5.25 | 11.76 | -6.50 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 4.17 | 10.24 | -6.10 |
| Melbourne Demons | 3.66 | 1.64 | 2.00 |
| GWS Giants | 3.07 | 9.54 | -6.50 |
| Carlton Blues | 0.77 | -4.77 | 5.50 |
| St Kilda Saints | -1.27 | -7.63 | 6.40 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -9.60 | -14.65 | 5.00 |
| North Melbourne | -18.08 | -21.71 | 3.60 |
| Essendon Bombers | -29.94 | -27.89 | -2.00 |
| West Coast Eagles | -33.15 | -39.36 | 6.20 |
| Richmond Tigers | -39.48 | -29.44 | -10.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 128 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats | Jun 18 | 99 – 90 | 7.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jun 19 | 97 – 113 | -1.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons | Jun 20 | 79 – 62 | 25.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. Carlton Blues | Jun 20 | 65 – 88 | 19.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jun 20 | 78 – 51 | 25.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Richmond Tigers vs. North Melbourne | Jun 21 | 48 – 73 | -20.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs | Jun 21 | 61 – 83 | -6.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 17
Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans | Jun 25 | Brisbane Lions | 3.50 |
| 2 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants | Jun 26 | Hawthorn Hawks | 26.80 |
| 3 | Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles | Jun 27 | Carlton Blues | 44.90 |
| 4 | Collingwood vs. Richmond Tigers | Jun 27 | Collingwood | 44.70 |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows | Jun 27 | Adelaide Crows | -26.30 |
| 6 | North Melbourne vs. Essendon Bombers | Jun 28 | North Melbourne | 11.90 |
| 7 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jun 28 | Fremantle Dockers | 31.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »