AFL Predictions for Week 25
Team Ratings for Week 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle Dockers | 26.33 | 6.56 | 19.80 |
| Geelong Cats | 23.78 | 26.75 | -3.00 |
| Sydney Swans | 22.15 | 0.56 | 21.60 |
| Brisbane Lions | 19.91 | 26.20 | -6.30 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 14.50 | 22.83 | -8.30 |
| Melbourne Demons | 13.15 | 1.64 | 11.50 |
| Adelaide Crows | 12.31 | 15.32 | -3.00 |
| Collingwood | 7.70 | 11.76 | -4.10 |
| Carlton Blues | 4.03 | -4.77 | 8.80 |
| Western Bulldogs | 2.52 | 26.06 | -23.50 |
| GWS Giants | 2.14 | 9.54 | -7.40 |
| St Kilda Saints | -0.36 | -7.63 | 7.30 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -4.75 | 10.24 | -15.00 |
| North Melbourne | -9.94 | -21.71 | 11.80 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -18.16 | -14.65 | -3.50 |
| West Coast Eagles | -31.28 | -39.36 | 8.10 |
| Richmond Tigers | -34.88 | -29.44 | -5.40 |
| Essendon Bombers | -37.17 | -27.89 | -9.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 198 matches played, 141 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows | Aug 14 | 112 – 88 | 25.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 15 | 95 – 53 | 27.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood | Aug 15 | 92 – 92 | 8.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | North Melbourne vs. Geelong Cats | Aug 15 | 110 – 125 | -24.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons | Aug 15 | 56 – 132 | -10.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints | Aug 15 | 45 – 94 | -31.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans | Aug 16 | 76 – 112 | -50.60 | TRUE |
| 8 | GWS Giants vs. West Coast Eagles | Aug 16 | 111 – 57 | 42.30 | TRUE |
| 9 | Western Bulldogs vs. Carlton Blues | Aug 16 | 82 – 82 | -1.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 25
Here are the predictions for Week 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 20 | St Kilda Saints | 15.40 |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions | Aug 21 | Brisbane Lions | -1.20 |
| 3 | Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants | Aug 22 | Adelaide Crows | 21.20 |
| 4 | Carlton Blues vs. Fremantle Dockers | Aug 22 | Fremantle Dockers | -11.30 |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers | Aug 22 | Geelong Cats | 69.70 |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. Western Bulldogs | Aug 22 | Melbourne Demons | 10.60 |
| 7 | Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power | Aug 23 | Port Adelaide Power | -8.00 |
| 8 | Sydney Swans vs. North Melbourne | Aug 23 | Sydney Swans | 43.10 |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Aug 23 | Hawthorn Hawks | -34.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »