Posts from August 2026 (16)

August 10, 2026

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 13.68 14.61 -0.90
Griquas 9.68 9.78 -0.10
Pumas 3.73 5.36 -1.60
Cheetahs -0.09 -2.42 2.30
Boland Cavaliers -2.67 -4.25 1.60
Bulls -3.77 -2.24 -1.50
Sharks -4.91 -4.65 -0.30
Stormers -9.46 -10.00 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 08 31 – 19 -2.70 FALSE
2 Bulls vs. Pumas Aug 09 31 – 33 -5.10 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Boland Cavaliers Aug 09 19 – 12 -0.20 FALSE
4 Stormers vs. Cheetahs Aug 10 26 – 31 -6.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Boland Cavaliers Aug 15 Lions 19.30
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Aug 15 Griquas 17.60
3 Pumas vs. Stormers Aug 16 Pumas 16.20
4 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Aug 17 Cheetahs -0.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 24

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Team Ratings for Week 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Fremantle Dockers 26.44 6.56 19.90
Geelong Cats 24.63 26.75 -2.10
Sydney Swans 23.30 0.56 22.70
Brisbane Lions 18.76 26.20 -7.40
Hawthorn Hawks 15.24 22.83 -7.60
Adelaide Crows 12.20 15.32 -3.10
Melbourne Demons 8.39 1.64 6.80
Collingwood 6.96 11.76 -4.80
Carlton Blues 4.19 -4.77 9.00
Western Bulldogs 2.36 26.06 -23.70
GWS Giants 1.09 9.54 -8.50
St Kilda Saints -1.70 -7.63 5.90
Gold Coast Suns -3.60 10.24 -13.80
North Melbourne -10.79 -21.71 10.90
Port Adelaide Power -13.39 -14.65 1.30
West Coast Eagles -30.23 -39.36 9.10
Richmond Tigers -33.54 -29.44 -4.10
Essendon Bombers -38.32 -27.89 -10.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 189 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne Aug 06 77 – 100 19.50 FALSE
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 07 125 – 58 5.50 TRUE
3 Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 08 113 – 109 -9.50 FALSE
4 Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 08 167 – 70 39.20 TRUE
5 Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers Aug 08 117 – 50 75.50 TRUE
6 Adelaide Crows vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 08 63 – 54 65.00 TRUE
7 GWS Giants vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 09 77 – 79 18.90 FALSE
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Collingwood Aug 09 98 – 117 -27.80 TRUE
9 St Kilda Saints vs. Carlton Blues Aug 09 62 – 106 0.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 24

Here are the predictions for Week 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 14 Fremantle Dockers 25.20
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 15 Brisbane Lions 27.40
3 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood Aug 15 Hawthorn Hawks 8.30
4 North Melbourne vs. Geelong Cats Aug 15 Geelong Cats -24.40
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 15 Melbourne Demons -10.80
6 Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 15 St Kilda Saints -31.80
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans Aug 16 Sydney Swans -50.60
8 GWS Giants vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 16 GWS Giants 42.30
9 Western Bulldogs vs. Carlton Blues Aug 16 Carlton Blues -1.80

 

August 4, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.44 8.77 2.70
Sharks 11.42 7.25 4.20
Roosters 9.65 9.50 0.10
Warriors 7.85 -1.18 9.00
Dolphins 3.88 1.85 2.00
Sea Eagles 0.99 0.21 0.80
Knights 0.03 -14.06 14.10
Rabbitohs -0.09 -5.05 5.00
Bulldogs -0.28 2.13 -2.40
Raiders -0.46 1.62 -2.10
Storm -0.68 6.96 -7.60
Cowboys -4.72 -2.69 -2.00
Broncos -5.20 7.06 -12.30
Titans -5.40 -8.02 2.60
Eels -5.63 -0.37 -5.30
Dragons -10.18 -6.72 -3.50
Wests Tigers -12.62 -7.26 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 164 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Roosters Jul 30 12 – 82 -2.50 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Dolphins Jul 31 22 – 28 -11.20 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Bulldogs Jul 31 22 – 36 6.50 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 01 6 – 42 -5.20 TRUE
5 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 01 42 – 18 14.40 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Knights Aug 01 6 – 30 2.30 FALSE
7 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 02 32 – 16 15.40 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Aug 02 13 – 16 -8.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Cowboys Aug 06 Titans 3.30
2 Warriors vs. Panthers Aug 07 Warriors 0.40
3 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Aug 07 Roosters 13.90
4 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Aug 08 Sea Eagles -1.70
5 Dolphins vs. Broncos Aug 08 Dolphins 9.10
6 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Aug 08 Rabbitohs 9.50
7 Raiders vs. Knights Aug 09 Raiders 3.50
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 09 Sharks -17.60

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 9.22 10.29 -1.10
Taranaki 8.56 7.57 1.00
Bay of Plenty 8.50 9.80 -1.30
Otago 6.76 5.80 1.00
Hawke’s Bay 6.47 5.18 1.30
Counties Manukau 2.63 3.63 -1.00
Wellington 1.41 2.70 -1.30
Waikato 0.47 -0.83 1.30
Tasman -0.03 0.68 -0.70
Auckland -1.57 -2.64 1.10
North Harbour -3.48 -4.18 0.70
Northland -4.97 -5.96 1.00
Southland -11.79 -10.83 -1.00
Manawatu -16.04 -15.05 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Jul 30 38 – 26 -7.60 FALSE
2 Tasman vs. North Harbour Jul 31 31 – 29 7.90 TRUE
3 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Aug 01 5 – 20 -0.90 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Otago Aug 01 14 – 41 -13.60 TRUE
5 Canterbury vs. Auckland Aug 01 38 – 31 15.90 TRUE
6 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 02 40 – 14 12.10 TRUE
7 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 02 33 – 52 0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 06 Counties Manukau -3.10
2 Taranaki vs. Waikato Aug 07 Taranaki 11.10
3 Auckland vs. Wellington Aug 08 Auckland 0.00
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Aug 08 Bay of Plenty 16.50
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Aug 08 Hawke’s Bay 9.50
6 Otago vs. Canterbury Aug 09 Otago 0.50
7 Manawatu vs. Southland Aug 09 Southland -1.20

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 14.54 14.61 -0.10
Griquas 8.82 9.78 -1.00
Pumas 4.04 5.36 -1.30
Cheetahs 0.08 -2.42 2.50
Boland Cavaliers -2.18 -4.25 2.10
Bulls -4.08 -2.24 -1.80
Sharks -5.39 -4.65 -0.70
Stormers -9.63 -10.00 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 01 24 – 21 13.00 TRUE
2 Stormers vs. Sharks Aug 02 36 – 28 -2.60 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Bulls Aug 02 42 – 19 21.30 TRUE
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Pumas Aug 03 15 – 20 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 08 Lions -2.70
2 Bulls vs. Pumas Aug 09 Pumas -5.10
3 Sharks vs. Boland Cavaliers Aug 09 Boland Cavaliers -0.20
4 Stormers vs. Cheetahs Aug 10 Cheetahs -6.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 23

By

Team Ratings for Week 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Fremantle Dockers 27.65 6.56 21.10
Geelong Cats 25.39 26.75 -1.40
Hawthorn Hawks 19.75 22.83 -3.10
Sydney Swans 19.05 0.56 18.50
Adelaide Crows 16.32 15.32 1.00
Brisbane Lions 14.26 26.20 -11.90
Collingwood 7.75 11.76 -4.00
Melbourne Demons 7.18 1.64 5.50
Western Bulldogs 5.53 26.06 -20.50
GWS Giants 2.71 9.54 -6.80
St Kilda Saints 1.64 -7.63 9.30
Carlton Blues 0.86 -4.77 5.60
Gold Coast Suns -5.22 10.24 -15.50
Port Adelaide Power -9.15 -14.65 5.50
North Melbourne -13.96 -21.71 7.80
West Coast Eagles -31.02 -39.36 8.30
Richmond Tigers -37.66 -29.44 -8.20
Essendon Bombers -39.08 -27.89 -11.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 180 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats Jul 30 72 – 97 -3.30 TRUE
2 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 31 78 – 41 32.30 TRUE
3 St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans Aug 01 88 – 107 -4.10 TRUE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Aug 01 99 – 83 36.90 TRUE
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. GWS Giants Aug 01 63 – 75 1.60 FALSE
6 Carlton Blues vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 01 154 – 78 -15.50 FALSE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 02 84 – 73 2.90 TRUE
8 Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 02 105 – 114 0.30 FALSE
9 Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 02 73 – 145 -39.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 23

Here are the predictions for Week 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne Aug 06 Western Bulldogs 19.50
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 07 Brisbane Lions 5.50
3 Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 08 Fremantle Dockers -9.50
4 Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 08 Sydney Swans 39.20
5 Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers Aug 08 Geelong Cats 75.50
6 Adelaide Crows vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 08 Adelaide Crows 65.00
7 GWS Giants vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 09 GWS Giants 18.90
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Collingwood Aug 09 Collingwood -27.80
9 St Kilda Saints vs. Carlton Blues Aug 09 St Kilda Saints 0.80

 

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