Posts from September 2026 (4)

September 1, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 27

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Team Ratings for Round 27

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Warriors 11.28 -1.18 12.50
Panthers 10.37 8.77 1.60
Dolphins 7.08 1.85 5.20
Roosters 6.37 9.50 -3.10
Sharks 6.04 7.25 -1.20
Storm 2.18 6.96 -4.80
Sea Eagles 1.10 0.21 0.90
Rabbitohs 0.85 -5.05 5.90
Bulldogs 0.36 2.13 -1.80
Knights -0.92 -14.06 13.10
Raiders -0.96 1.62 -2.60
Cowboys -2.78 -2.69 -0.10
Eels -3.48 -0.37 -3.10
Broncos -7.25 7.06 -14.30
Titans -7.82 -8.02 0.20
Wests Tigers -11.21 -7.26 -4.00
Dragons -11.23 -6.72 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 128 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 27 20 – 46 -2.20 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Aug 28 44 – 10 13.50 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Aug 28 24 – 10 8.90 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Aug 29 22 – 42 -2.10 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Dolphins Aug 29 12 – 26 6.10 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Aug 29 24 – 10 12.00 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Knights Aug 30 46 – 32 16.80 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Sharks Aug 30 38 – 18 -9.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 27

Here are the predictions for Round 27. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Sept 03 Bulldogs 11.60
2 Titans vs. Dolphins Sept 04 Dolphins -10.90
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sept 04 Roosters -9.50
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Sept 05 Warriors 14.20
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Sept 05 Cowboys 2.20
6 Sharks vs. Storm Sept 05 Sharks 7.90
7 Dragons vs. Eels Sept 05 Eels -3.70
8 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Sept 05 Panthers 21.60

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawke’s Bay 9.30 5.18 4.10
Bay of Plenty 6.91 9.80 -2.90
Otago 6.57 5.80 0.80
Canterbury 6.56 10.29 -3.70
Taranaki 5.84 7.57 -1.70
Waikato 2.79 -0.83 3.60
Northland 1.79 -5.96 7.70
North Harbour 0.49 -4.18 4.70
Tasman 0.08 0.68 -0.60
Auckland -1.79 -2.64 0.80
Counties Manukau -1.87 3.63 -5.50
Wellington -4.24 2.70 -6.90
Southland -11.76 -10.83 -0.90
Manawatu -14.52 -15.05 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 27 21 – 36 -19.00 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 28 19 – 22 -6.60 TRUE
3 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Aug 29 40 – 26 0.30 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Waikato Aug 29 43 – 38 7.30 TRUE
5 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Aug 29 43 – 40 -14.40 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Aug 30 35 – 46 2.60 FALSE
7 Northland vs. Tasman Aug 30 20 – 10 3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sept 03 Taranaki 10.60
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sept 04 Hawke’s Bay 5.70
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sept 05 Bay of Plenty 24.40
4 Tasman vs. Wellington Sept 05 Tasman 7.30
5 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sept 05 Canterbury -0.80
6 Counties Manukau vs. Southland Sept 06 Counties Manukau 12.90
7 North Harbour vs. Northland Sept 06 North Harbour 1.70

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Griquas 12.86 9.78 3.10
Lions 11.49 14.61 -3.10
Pumas 4.15 5.36 -1.20
Cheetahs -0.21 -2.42 2.20
Boland Cavaliers -2.77 -4.25 1.50
Sharks -3.57 -4.65 1.10
Bulls -7.38 -2.24 -5.10
Stormers -8.39 -10.00 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Stormers Aug 29 36 – 12 22.60 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Bulls Aug 29 53 – 22 4.00 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 29 52 – 26 5.10 TRUE
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Griquas Aug 31 17 – 48 -10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Sept 06 Griquas 4.40
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Sept 07 Pumas -1.40

 

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AFL Predictions for Quarter Final

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Team Ratings for Quarter Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 24.44 26.20 -1.80
Sydney Swans 23.04 0.56 22.50
Fremantle Dockers 22.75 6.56 16.20
Geelong Cats 22.64 26.75 -4.10
Hawthorn Hawks 16.57 22.83 -6.30
Adelaide Crows 14.94 15.32 -0.40
Carlton Blues 9.31 -4.77 14.10
Melbourne Demons 9.05 1.64 7.40
Western Bulldogs 5.03 26.06 -21.00
Collingwood 3.06 11.76 -8.70
GWS Giants -0.48 9.54 -10.00
Gold Coast Suns -1.87 10.24 -12.10
St Kilda Saints -3.24 -7.63 4.40
North Melbourne -10.83 -21.71 10.90
Port Adelaide Power -18.07 -14.65 -3.40
West Coast Eagles -33.36 -39.36 6.00
Richmond Tigers -33.74 -29.44 -4.30
Essendon Bombers -37.26 -27.89 -9.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 209 matches played, 148 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood Aug 28 96 – 93 1.70 TRUE
2 Melbourne Demons vs. Carlton Blues Aug 29 55 – 74 3.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Quarter Finals

Here are the predictions for Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sept 03 Fremantle Dockers 17.20
2 Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues Sept 04 Geelong Cats 2.30
3 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Sept 05 Sydney Swans 9.60
4 Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs Sept 05 Adelaide Crows 20.90

 

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