Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 10
Team Ratings for Week 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taranaki | 8.78 | 7.57 | 1.20 |
| Canterbury | 8.65 | 10.29 | -1.60 |
| Otago | 7.55 | 5.80 | 1.70 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 5.16 | 5.18 | -0.00 |
| North Harbour | 4.01 | -4.18 | 8.20 |
| Northland | 2.17 | -5.96 | 8.10 |
| Bay of Plenty | 1.94 | 9.80 | -7.90 |
| Waikato | 1.01 | -0.83 | 1.80 |
| Tasman | 0.37 | 0.68 | -0.30 |
| Auckland | -1.93 | -2.64 | 0.70 |
| Counties Manukau | -2.66 | 3.63 | -6.30 |
| Manawatu | -9.08 | -15.05 | 6.00 |
| Wellington | -9.41 | 2.70 | -12.10 |
| Southland | -10.40 | -10.83 | 0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 63 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty | Sept 24 | 45 – 26 | -1.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Auckland vs. Manawatu | Sept 25 | 34 – 40 | 12.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Northland vs. Counties Manukau | Sept 26 | 19 – 22 | 9.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Canterbury vs. Southland | Sept 26 | 34 – 21 | 23.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | North Harbour vs. Otago | Sept 26 | 32 – 21 | -2.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Wellington vs. Waikato | Sept 27 | 10 – 34 | -4.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki | Sept 27 | 14 – 50 | 4.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 10
Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otago vs. Auckland | Oct 01 | Otago | 12.50 |
| 2 | Southland vs. Northland | Oct 02 | Northland | -9.60 |
| 3 | Manawatu vs. Canterbury | Oct 03 | Canterbury | -14.70 |
| 4 | Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 03 | Hawke’s Bay | -4.80 |
| 5 | Waikato vs. Tasman | Oct 03 | Waikato | 3.60 |
| 6 | Taranaki vs. Wellington | Oct 04 | Taranaki | 21.20 |
| 7 | Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour | Oct 04 | Bay of Plenty | 0.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »