NFL Predictions for Week 5
Team Ratings for Week 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 10.14 | 12.03 | -1.90 |
| Patriots | 7.12 | 8.11 | -1.00 |
| Jaguars | 6.95 | 4.17 | 2.80 |
| Bills | 6.26 | 4.81 | 1.50 |
| 49ers | 4.97 | 0.63 | 4.30 |
| Rams | 4.23 | 6.16 | -1.90 |
| Bears | 3.66 | 1.18 | 2.50 |
| Vikings | 3.51 | 2.79 | 0.70 |
| Broncos | 2.70 | 4.07 | -1.40 |
| Chiefs | 1.77 | -1.34 | 3.10 |
| Ravens | 1.55 | 2.53 | -1.00 |
| Bengals | 1.50 | 0.39 | 1.10 |
| Lions | 1.26 | 5.20 | -3.90 |
| Texans | 0.87 | 5.51 | -4.60 |
| Colts | 0.23 | -0.74 | 1.00 |
| Steelers | -0.86 | -0.43 | -0.40 |
| Falcons | -1.00 | -1.39 | 0.40 |
| Chargers | -1.16 | 1.16 | -2.30 |
| Cowboys | -1.28 | -3.42 | 2.10 |
| Raiders | -1.41 | -5.72 | 4.30 |
| Eagles | -1.82 | 0.73 | -2.60 |
| Giants | -1.83 | -2.38 | 0.60 |
| Browns | -2.23 | -2.50 | 0.30 |
| Packers | -2.57 | 1.72 | -4.30 |
| Panthers | -2.57 | -4.66 | 2.10 |
| Saints | -4.32 | -3.38 | -0.90 |
| Buccaneers | -4.56 | -3.95 | -0.60 |
| Commanders | -5.26 | -4.65 | -0.60 |
| Dolphins | -6.63 | -3.99 | -2.60 |
| Cardinals | -7.19 | -7.49 | 0.30 |
| Jets | -7.22 | -9.84 | 2.60 |
| Titans | -8.31 | -8.81 | 0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 64 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Browns vs. Steelers | Oct 02 | 27 – 24 | -3.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Commanders vs. Colts | Oct 05 | 13 – 30 | -2.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Ravens vs. Titans | Oct 05 | 24 – 18 | 11.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bills vs. Patriots | Oct 05 | 26 – 29 | -0.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Bears vs. Jets | Oct 05 | 23 – 12 | 10.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Bengals vs. Jaguars | Oct 05 | 17 – 22 | -5.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Texans vs. Cowboys | Oct 05 | 30 – 34 | 4.50 | FALSE |
| 8 | Giants vs. Cardinals | Oct 05 | 36 – 24 | 2.80 | TRUE |
| 9 | Eagles vs. Rams | Oct 05 | 20 – 24 | -6.80 | TRUE |
| 10 | Buccaneers vs. Packers | Oct 05 | 14 – 17 | -1.60 | TRUE |
| 11 | Vikings vs. Dolphins | Oct 05 | 15 – 10 | 12.10 | TRUE |
| 12 | Raiders vs. Chiefs | Oct 05 | 27 – 30 | -3.30 | TRUE |
| 13 | 49ers vs. Broncos | Oct 05 | 24 – 14 | -0.70 | FALSE |
| 14 | Seahawks vs. Chargers | Oct 05 | 30 – 23 | 13.00 | TRUE |
| 15 | Panthers vs. Lions | Oct 05 | 32 – 26 | -6.20 | FALSE |
| 16 | Saints vs. Falcons | Oct 06 | 24 – 45 | 0.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 5
Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Buccaneers | Oct 09 | Cowboys | 3.30 |
| 2 | Jaguars vs. Eagles | Oct 12 | Jaguars | 8.80 |
| 3 | Dolphins vs. Bengals | Oct 12 | Bengals | -8.10 |
| 4 | Patriots vs. Raiders | Oct 12 | Patriots | 8.50 |
| 5 | Saints vs. Vikings | Oct 12 | Vikings | -7.80 |
| 6 | Jets vs. Browns | Oct 12 | Browns | -5.00 |
| 7 | Steelers vs. Colts | Oct 12 | Colts | -1.10 |
| 8 | Titans vs. Texans | Oct 12 | Texans | -9.20 |
| 9 | Commanders vs. Giants | Oct 12 | Giants | -3.40 |
| 10 | Chargers vs. Broncos | Oct 12 | Broncos | -3.90 |
| 11 | Cardinals vs. Lions | Oct 12 | Lions | -8.50 |
| 12 | Packers vs. Bears | Oct 12 | Bears | -6.20 |
| 13 | Seahawks vs. 49ers | Oct 12 | Seahawks | 5.20 |
| 14 | Falcons vs. Ravens | Oct 12 | Ravens | -2.60 |
| 15 | Rams vs. Bills | Oct 13 | Bills | -2.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »