NFL Predictions for Week 9
Team Ratings for Week 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 7.40 | 4.17 | 3.20 |
| Bills | 7.23 | 4.81 | 2.40 |
| Seahawks | 6.95 | 12.03 | -5.10 |
| Bears | 5.49 | 1.18 | 4.30 |
| Patriots | 5.15 | 8.11 | -3.00 |
| Rams | 5.15 | 6.16 | -1.00 |
| Broncos | 4.78 | 4.07 | 0.70 |
| 49ers | 3.89 | 0.63 | 3.30 |
| Lions | 3.57 | 5.20 | -1.60 |
| Vikings | 3.10 | 2.79 | 0.30 |
| Steelers | 2.71 | -0.43 | 3.10 |
| Bengals | 2.67 | 0.39 | 2.30 |
| Texans | 1.91 | 5.51 | -3.60 |
| Chiefs | 1.64 | -1.34 | 3.00 |
| Packers | 1.24 | 1.72 | -0.50 |
| Buccaneers | 0.66 | -3.95 | 4.60 |
| Falcons | -2.30 | -1.39 | -0.90 |
| Giants | -2.40 | -2.38 | -0.00 |
| Commanders | -2.51 | -4.65 | 2.10 |
| Ravens | -2.72 | 2.53 | -5.20 |
| Raiders | -3.08 | -5.72 | 2.60 |
| Cowboys | -3.35 | -3.42 | 0.10 |
| Saints | -3.57 | -3.38 | -0.20 |
| Chargers | -3.85 | 1.16 | -5.00 |
| Browns | -4.36 | -2.50 | -1.90 |
| Panthers | -4.47 | -4.66 | 0.20 |
| Colts | -4.70 | -0.74 | -4.00 |
| Dolphins | -4.84 | -3.99 | -0.90 |
| Eagles | -5.36 | 0.73 | -6.10 |
| Jets | -5.84 | -9.84 | 4.00 |
| Cardinals | -6.42 | -7.49 | 1.10 |
| Titans | -7.27 | -8.81 | 1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 121 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Packers vs. Panthers | Oct 30 | 27 – 19 | 4.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bills vs. Ravens | Nov 02 | 36 – 10 | 6.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bengals vs. Titans | Nov 02 | 43 – 36 | 11.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Cardinals | Nov 02 | 30 – 33 | 5.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Lions vs. Vikings | Nov 02 | 19 – 15 | -0.90 | FALSE |
| 6 | Jaguars vs. Colts | Nov 02 | 42 – 7 | 7.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Jets vs. Raiders | Nov 02 | 33 – 38 | -1.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Steelers vs. Browns | Nov 02 | 27 – 6 | 3.90 | TRUE |
| 9 | Buccaneers vs. Falcons | Nov 02 | 16 – 0 | 0.00 | TRUE |
| 10 | Rams vs. Chargers | Nov 02 | 24 – 9 | 6.70 | TRUE |
| 11 | Broncos vs. Chiefs | Nov 02 | 28 – 24 | 2.80 | TRUE |
| 12 | Dolphins vs. Patriots | Nov 02 | 19 – 24 | -11.90 | TRUE |
| 13 | Commanders vs. Eagles | Nov 02 | 27 – 10 | -0.30 | FALSE |
| 14 | Seahawks vs. Bears | Nov 03 | 17 – 34 | 5.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 9
Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ravens vs. Jaguars | Nov 06 | Jaguars | -10.10 |
| 2 | Falcons vs. Bengals | Nov 09 | Bengals | -5.00 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Broncos | Nov 09 | Broncos | -9.20 |
| 4 | Colts vs. Cowboys | Nov 09 | Cowboys | -1.40 |
| 5 | Chiefs vs. Jets | Nov 09 | Chiefs | 7.50 |
| 6 | Dolphins vs. Lions | Nov 09 | Lions | -8.40 |
| 7 | Saints vs. Browns | Nov 09 | Saints | 0.80 |
| 8 | Eagles vs. Giants | Nov 09 | Giants | -3.00 |
| 9 | Commanders vs. Rams | Nov 09 | Rams | -7.70 |
| 10 | Chargers vs. Texans | Nov 09 | Texans | -5.80 |
| 11 | 49ers vs. Raiders | Nov 09 | 49ers | 7.00 |
| 12 | Patriots vs. Packers | Nov 09 | Patriots | 3.90 |
| 13 | Seahawks vs. Cardinals | Nov 09 | Seahawks | 13.40 |
| 14 | Bears vs. Buccaneers | Nov 09 | Bears | 4.80 |
| 15 | Vikings vs. Bills | Nov 10 | Bills | -4.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »