Search results for Predictions Rugby World Cup Uruguay (16)

October 29, 2019

Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Rugby World Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.01 27.60 -0.60
England 23.20 19.78 3.40
South Africa 19.87 18.51 1.40
Ireland 10.56 12.12 -1.60
Wales 10.32 12.72 -2.40
Australia 6.60 8.70 -2.10
Scotland 6.14 5.44 0.70
France 5.26 7.11 -1.80
Argentina 3.32 4.15 -0.80
Japan -5.52 -7.67 2.20
Fiji -5.54 -5.27 -0.30
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -15.53 -11.89 -3.60
Tonga -15.83 -20.46 4.60
Georgia -18.08 -17.43 -0.70
USA -18.64 -16.38 -2.30
Uruguay -30.89 -35.67 4.80
Canada -34.63 -32.45 -2.20
Russia -36.32 -36.78 0.50
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 43 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 90.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 England vs. New Zealand Oct 26 19 – 7 -7.30 FALSE
2 Wales vs. South Africa Oct 27 16 – 19 -11.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 New Zealand vs. Wales Nov 01 New Zealand 16.70
2 England vs. South Africa Nov 02 England 3.30

 

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October 13, 2019

Rugby World Cup Predictions 6

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Team Ratings 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the latest team ratings, along with the ratings at the start of the competition.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.22 27.60 -0.40
England 20.46 19.78 0.70
South Africa 20.22 18.51 1.70
Ireland 12.08 12.12 -0.00
Wales 12.04 12.72 -0.70
Australia 7.60 8.70 -1.10
Scotland 7.43 5.44 2.00
France 4.89 7.11 -2.20
Argentina 3.32 4.15 -0.80
Fiji -5.54 -5.27 -0.30
Japan -6.44 -7.67 1.20
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -15.53 -11.89 -3.60
Tonga -16.84 -20.46 3.60
USA -17.64 -16.38 -1.30
Georgia -18.08 -17.43 -0.70
Uruguay -32.96 -35.67 2.70
Canada -34.63 -32.45 -2.20
Russia -36.32 -36.78 0.50
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 34 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 94.1%.
Here are the predictions for all games played.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE
16 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 33 – 7 15.40 TRUE
17 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 25 – 29 -3.60 TRUE
18 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 34 – 0 15.60 TRUE
19 France vs. USA Oct 02 33 – 9 23.60 TRUE
20 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 63 – 0 61.70 TRUE
21 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 10 – 45 -7.80 TRUE
22 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 35 – 0 47.10 TRUE
23 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 49 – 3 25.60 TRUE
24 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 45 – 10 42.70 TRUE
25 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 39 – 10 15.80 TRUE
26 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 38 – 19 12.90 TRUE
27 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 71 – 9 68.40 TRUE
28 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 23 – 21 26.10 TRUE
29 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 66 – 7 53.90 TRUE
30 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 47 – 17 19.00 TRUE
31 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 61 – 0 40.00 TRUE
32 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 29 – 17 18.80 TRUE
33 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 27 – 8 27.20 TRUE
34 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 47 – 5 24.40 TRUE

 

Predictions 6

Here are the predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Namibia vs. Canada Oct 13 Canada -5.40
2 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 Tonga -0.80
3 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 Wales 45.00
4 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 Scotland -7.40

 

October 8, 2019

Rugby World Cup Predictions 5

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Team Ratings 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.22 27.60 -0.40
England 20.46 19.78 0.70
South Africa 19.76 18.51 1.30
Wales 12.66 12.72 -0.10
Ireland 10.50 12.12 -1.60
Australia 8.33 8.70 -0.40
Scotland 5.54 5.44 0.10
France 4.89 7.11 -2.20
Argentina 2.33 4.15 -1.80
Fiji -6.16 -5.27 -0.90
Japan -6.44 -7.67 1.20
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -13.95 -11.89 -2.10
USA -16.64 -16.38 -0.30
Tonga -16.84 -20.46 3.60
Georgia -18.82 -17.43 -1.40
Uruguay -32.96 -35.67 2.70
Canada -34.17 -32.45 -1.70
Russia -34.42 -36.78 2.40
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 92.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE
16 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 33 – 7 15.40 TRUE
17 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 25 – 29 -3.60 TRUE
18 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 34 – 0 15.60 TRUE
19 France vs. USA Oct 02 33 – 9 23.60 TRUE
20 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 63 – 0 61.70 TRUE
21 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 10 – 45 -7.80 TRUE
22 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 35 – 0 47.10 TRUE
23 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 49 – 3 25.60 TRUE
24 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 45 – 10 42.70 TRUE
25 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 39 – 10 15.80 TRUE
26 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 38 – 19 12.90 TRUE
27 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 71 – 9 68.40 TRUE
28 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 23 – 21 26.10 TRUE

 

Predictions 5

Here are the predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 South Africa 53.90
2 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 Argentina 19.00
3 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 Scotland 40.00
4 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 Wales 18.80
5 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 Australia 27.20
6 New Zealand vs. Italy Oct 12 New Zealand 36.80
7 England vs. France Oct 12 England 15.60
8 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 Ireland 24.40
9 Namibia vs. Canada Oct 13 Canada -5.80
10 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 USA 0.20
11 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 Wales 45.60
12 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 Scotland -5.50

 

October 3, 2019

Rugby World Cup Predictions 4

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Team Ratings 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.80 27.60 0.20
England 19.27 19.78 -0.50
South Africa 17.93 18.51 -0.60
Wales 12.66 12.72 -0.10
Ireland 11.59 12.12 -0.50
Australia 9.02 8.70 0.30
France 7.05 7.11 -0.10
Scotland 5.54 5.44 0.10
Argentina 3.52 4.15 -0.60
Japan -6.99 -7.67 0.70
Italy -7.70 -8.57 0.90
Fiji -8.61 -5.27 -3.30
Samoa -13.40 -11.89 -1.50
Georgia -16.37 -17.43 1.10
USA -16.64 -16.38 -0.30
Tonga -19.00 -20.46 1.50
Uruguay -33.65 -35.67 2.00
Canada -34.17 -32.45 -1.70
Russia -35.51 -36.78 1.30
Namibia -40.57 -41.80 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 90%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE
16 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 33 – 7 15.40 TRUE
17 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 25 – 29 -3.60 TRUE
18 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 34 – 0 15.60 TRUE
19 France vs. USA Oct 02 33 – 9 23.60 TRUE
20 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 63 – 0 61.70 TRUE

 

Predictions 4

Here are the predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 Fiji -7.80
2 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 Ireland 47.10
3 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 South Africa 25.60
4 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 Australia 42.70
5 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 England 15.80
6 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 Japan 12.90
7 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 New Zealand 68.40
8 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 France 26.10
9 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 South Africa 52.10
10 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 Argentina 20.20
11 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 Scotland 41.10
12 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 Wales 21.30
13 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 Australia 25.40
14 New Zealand vs. Italy Oct 12 New Zealand 35.50
15 England vs. France Oct 12 England 12.20
16 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 Ireland 25.00
17 Namibia vs. Canada Oct 13 Canada -6.40
18 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 USA 2.40
19 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 Wales 46.30
20 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 Scotland -6.00

 

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September 29, 2019

Rugby World Cup Predictions 3

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Team Ratings 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.68 27.60 0.10
England 19.27 19.78 -0.50
South Africa 17.93 18.51 -0.60
Wales 12.62 12.72 -0.10
Ireland 11.59 12.12 -0.50
Australia 9.06 8.70 0.40
France 7.02 7.11 -0.10
Scotland 3.88 5.44 -1.60
Argentina 3.52 4.15 -0.60
Japan -6.99 -7.67 0.70
Italy -7.70 -8.57 0.90
Fiji -8.61 -5.27 -3.30
Samoa -11.75 -11.89 0.10
USA -16.61 -16.38 -0.20
Georgia -17.32 -17.43 0.10
Tonga -19.00 -20.46 1.50
Uruguay -32.69 -35.67 3.00
Canada -34.06 -32.45 -1.60
Russia -35.51 -36.78 1.30
Namibia -40.57 -41.80 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 86.7%.
Here are the predictions for games played so far.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE

 

Predictions 3

Here are the updated predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 Georgia 15.40
2 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 Wales -3.60
3 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 Scotland 15.60
4 France vs. USA Oct 02 France 23.60
5 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 New Zealand 61.70
6 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 Fiji -8.70
7 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 Ireland 47.10
8 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 South Africa 25.60
9 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 Australia 41.80
10 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 England 15.80
11 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 Japan 11.30
12 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 New Zealand 68.20
13 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 France 26.00
14 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 South Africa 52.00
15 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 Argentina 20.10
16 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 Scotland 39.40
17 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 Wales 21.20
18 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 Australia 26.40
19 New Zealand vs. Italy Oct 12 New Zealand 35.40
20 England vs. France Oct 12 England 12.20
21 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 Ireland 23.30
22 Namibia vs. Canada Oct 13 Canada -6.50
23 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 USA 2.40
24 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 Wales 45.30
25 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 Scotland -4.40

 

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September 24, 2019

Rugby World Cup Predictions 2

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I was hoping to be able to release predictions in batches of 8 matches, but some matches which could be predicted already would then not have a prediction. Instead I have decided to predict all future games, and update as required to ensure that before a team plays, my predictions will take into account all previous games.

Observe below that means for example that I will provide updated predictions before the Georgia vs. Uruguay game to take into account the game played by Uruguay against Fiji.

Team Ratings 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.68 27.60 0.10
England 19.04 19.78 -0.70
South Africa 18.42 18.51 -0.10
Ireland 13.68 12.12 1.60
Wales 12.62 12.72 -0.10
Australia 9.06 8.70 0.40
France 7.02 7.11 -0.10
Argentina 4.23 4.15 0.10
Scotland 3.88 5.44 -1.60
Fiji -5.64 -5.27 -0.40
Japan -9.08 -7.67 -1.40
Italy -9.31 -8.57 -0.70
Samoa -11.89 -11.89 -0.00
USA -16.38 -16.38 -0.00
Georgia -17.32 -17.43 0.10
Tonga -19.72 -20.46 0.70
Canada -32.45 -32.45 0.00
Russia -35.38 -36.78 1.40
Uruguay -35.67 -35.67 -0.00
Namibia -41.06 -41.80 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for the previous games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE

 

Predictions 2

Here are the updated predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 Samoa -23.50
2 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 Fiji 30.00
3 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 Italy 23.10
4 England vs. USA Sep 26 England 35.40
5 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 Argentina 24.00
6 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 Ireland -16.30
7 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 South Africa 59.50
8 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 Georgia 18.30
9 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 Wales -3.60
10 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 Scotland 15.80
11 France vs. USA Oct 02 France 23.40
12 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 New Zealand 60.10
13 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 Fiji -11.70
14 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 Ireland 49.10
15 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 South Africa 27.70
16 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 Australia 44.70
17 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 England 14.80
18 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 Japan 9.30
19 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 New Zealand 68.70
20 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 France 26.70
21 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 South Africa 50.90
22 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 Argentina 20.60
23 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 Scotland 39.30
24 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 Wales 18.30
25 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 Australia 26.40
26 New Zealand vs. Italy Oct 12 New Zealand 37.00
27 England vs. France Oct 12 England 12.00
28 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 Ireland 25.60
29 Namibia vs. Canada Oct 13 Canada -8.60
30 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 USA 3.30
31 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 Wales 48.30
32 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 Scotland -6.50

 

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September 13, 2019

Rugby World Cup Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.60 27.60 -0.00
England 19.78 19.78 0.00
South Africa 18.51 18.51 0.00
Wales 12.72 12.72 0.00
Ireland 12.12 12.12 -0.00
Australia 8.70 8.70 -0.00
France 7.11 7.11 0.00
Scotland 5.44 5.44 -0.00
Argentina 4.15 4.15 0.00
Fiji -5.27 -5.27 0.00
Japan -7.67 -7.67 0.00
Italy -8.57 -8.57 -0.00
Samoa -11.89 -11.89 -0.00
USA -16.38 -16.38 -0.00
Georgia -17.43 -17.43 -0.00
Tonga -20.46 -20.46 -0.00
Canada -32.45 -32.45 0.00
Uruguay -35.67 -35.67 -0.00
Russia -36.78 -36.78 0.00
Namibia -41.80 -41.80 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 Japan 35.60
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 Australia 14.00
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 France 3.00
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 New Zealand 9.10
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 Italy 33.20
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 Ireland 6.70
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 England 40.20
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 Wales 30.10

 

Publication Schedule

I aim to publish RWC predictions on a schedule which ensures that team ratings have been calculated using all prior results. With 5 teams per pool and 4 pools, only 8 games can be played without the necessity for a team to play twice and that is how the pool games schedule appears to have been arranged. I thus intend to publish new predictions after each group of 8 games. There may be some variations in when I publish because I am currently on a cycling holiday in Europe.

For the NRL and Mitre 10 Cup predictions, I aim to publish on a Tuesday each week as usual.

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October 28, 2015

Rugby World Cup Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Rugby World Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

Current Rating Rating at RWC Start Difference
New Zealand 28.10 29.01 -0.90
South Africa 23.16 22.73 0.40
Australia 21.25 20.36 0.90
England 16.43 18.51 -2.10
Ireland 15.97 17.48 -1.50
Wales 13.85 13.93 -0.10
Argentina 10.87 7.38 3.50
France 8.96 11.70 -2.70
Scotland 5.94 4.84 1.10
Fiji -2.19 -4.23 2.00
Samoa -4.15 -2.28 -1.90
Italy -6.37 -5.86 -0.50
Tonga -8.84 -6.31 -2.50
Japan -9.10 -11.18 2.10
USA -17.13 -15.97 -1.20
Georgia -17.74 -17.48 -0.30
Canada -17.89 -18.06 0.20
Romania -19.44 -21.20 1.80
Uruguay -31.67 -31.04 -0.60
Namibia -33.29 -35.62 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 84.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 South Africa vs. New Zealand Oct 24 18 – 20 -5.60 TRUE
2 Argentina vs. Australia Oct 25 15 – 29 -9.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 South Africa vs. Argentina Oct 30 South Africa 12.30
2 New Zealand vs. Australia Oct 31 New Zealand 6.80

 

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October 21, 2015

Rugby World Cup Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

Current Rating Rating at RWC Start Difference
New Zealand 28.42 29.01 -0.60
South Africa 22.84 22.73 0.10
Australia 20.85 20.36 0.50
England 16.43 18.51 -2.10
Ireland 15.97 17.48 -1.50
Wales 13.85 13.93 -0.10
Argentina 11.27 7.38 3.90
France 8.96 11.70 -2.70
Scotland 5.94 4.84 1.10
Fiji -2.19 -4.23 2.00
Samoa -4.15 -2.28 -1.90
Italy -6.37 -5.86 -0.50
Tonga -8.84 -6.31 -2.50
Japan -9.10 -11.18 2.10
USA -17.13 -15.97 -1.20
Georgia -17.74 -17.48 -0.30
Canada -17.89 -18.06 0.20
Romania -19.44 -21.20 1.80
Uruguay -31.67 -31.04 -0.60
Namibia -33.29 -35.62 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 84.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 South Africa vs. Wales Oct 17 23 – 19 10.10 TRUE
2 New Zealand vs. France Oct 17 62 – 13 16.60 TRUE
3 Ireland vs. Argentina Oct 18 20 – 43 7.50 FALSE
4 Australia vs. Scotland Oct 18 35 – 34 16.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 South Africa vs. New Zealand Oct 24 New Zealand -5.60
2 Argentina vs. Australia Oct 25 Australia -9.60

 

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October 13, 2015

Rugby World Cup Predictions for the Quarter Finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

Current Rating Rating at RWC Start Difference
New Zealand 26.96 29.01 -2.00
South Africa 23.39 22.73 0.70
Australia 21.66 20.36 1.30
Ireland 17.35 17.48 -0.10
England 16.43 18.51 -2.10
Wales 13.30 13.93 -0.60
France 10.41 11.70 -1.30
Argentina 9.89 7.38 2.50
Scotland 5.13 4.84 0.30
Fiji -2.19 -4.23 2.00
Samoa -4.15 -2.28 -1.90
Italy -6.37 -5.86 -0.50
Tonga -8.84 -6.31 -2.50
Japan -9.10 -11.18 2.10
USA -17.13 -15.97 -1.20
Georgia -17.74 -17.48 -0.30
Canada -17.89 -18.06 0.20
Romania -19.44 -21.20 1.80
Uruguay -31.67 -31.04 -0.60
Namibia -33.29 -35.62 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 New Zealand vs. Tonga Oct 09 47 – 9 35.30 TRUE
2 Samoa vs. Scotland Oct 10 33 – 36 -10.70 TRUE
3 Australia vs. Wales Oct 10 15 – 6 8.20 TRUE
4 England vs. Uruguay Oct 10 60 – 3 54.10 TRUE
5 Argentina vs. Namibia Oct 11 64 – 19 42.80 TRUE
6 Italy vs. Romania Oct 11 32 – 22 13.70 TRUE
7 France vs. Ireland Oct 11 9 – 24 -5.90 TRUE
8 USA vs. Japan Oct 11 18 – 28 -7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 South Africa vs. Wales Oct 17 South Africa 10.10
2 New Zealand vs. France Oct 17 New Zealand 16.60
3 Ireland vs. Argentina Oct 18 Ireland 7.50
4 Australia vs. Scotland Oct 18 Australia 16.50

 

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