Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 29, 2020

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 15.67 15.13 0.50
Auckland 7.81 6.75 1.10
Canterbury 7.65 8.40 -0.80
Wellington 7.52 6.47 1.10
Bay of Plenty 4.65 8.21 -3.60
Waikato 3.87 1.31 2.60
Hawke’s Bay 0.49 0.91 -0.40
North Harbour 0.16 2.87 -2.70
Taranaki -3.34 -4.42 1.10
Otago -3.84 -4.03 0.20
Northland -7.58 -8.71 1.10
Counties Manukau -9.02 -8.18 -0.80
Southland -10.86 -14.04 3.20
Manawatu -13.07 -10.57 -2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 25 32 – 10 3.50 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Waikato Sep 26 34 – 17 14.20 TRUE
3 Southland vs. North Harbour Sep 26 11 – 10 -9.50 FALSE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Sep 26 20 – 19 -5.10 FALSE
5 Auckland vs. Manawatu Sep 27 50 – 12 21.70 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Otago Sep 27 19 – 30 5.70 FALSE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 27 15 – 24 3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Oct 02 Auckland -0.20
2 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Oct 03 Counties Manukau 7.00
3 Northland vs. Taranaki Oct 03 Taranaki -1.20
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Oct 03 Canterbury 3.10
5 North Harbour vs. Tasman Oct 04 Tasman -12.50
6 Southland vs. Waikato Oct 04 Waikato -11.70
7 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 04 Hawke’s Bay -1.30

 

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September 22, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.68 12.73 1.90
Roosters 13.01 12.25 0.80
Panthers 7.63 -0.13 7.80
Raiders 6.62 7.06 -0.40
Rabbitohs 4.29 2.85 1.40
Eels 2.56 2.80 -0.20
Sharks -0.22 1.81 -2.00
Knights -0.33 -5.92 5.60
Warriors -2.61 -5.17 2.60
Wests Tigers -3.25 -0.18 -3.10
Sea Eagles -4.00 1.05 -5.00
Dragons -6.13 -6.14 0.00
Bulldogs -6.33 -2.52 -3.80
Cowboys -7.14 -3.95 -3.20
Titans -8.70 -12.99 4.30
Broncos -12.07 -5.53 -6.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Sep 17 16 – 26 14.90 FALSE
2 Cowboys vs. Panthers Sep 18 12 – 32 -11.80 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Broncos Sep 18 26 – 12 17.10 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Sep 19 24 – 42 9.10 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Sep 19 50 – 22 16.70 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Sharks Sep 19 34 – 18 15.00 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Warriors Sep 20 26 – 14 14.10 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Dragons Sep 20 42 – 18 6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Cowboys Sep 24 Cowboys -2.90
2 Titans vs. Knights Sep 25 Knights -6.40
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 25 Roosters -6.70
4 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Sep 26 Panthers -12.00
5 Sharks vs. Raiders Sep 26 Raiders -4.80
6 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Sep 26 Eels -5.80
7 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Sep 27 Sea Eagles 3.10
8 Dragons vs. Storm Sep 27 Storm -18.80

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 15.39 15.13 0.30
Canterbury 8.11 8.40 -0.30
Auckland 6.74 6.75 -0.00
Wellington 6.32 6.47 -0.10
Bay of Plenty 5.84 8.21 -2.40
Waikato 4.14 1.31 2.80
North Harbour 0.90 2.87 -2.00
Hawke’s Bay 0.02 0.91 -0.90
Taranaki -2.24 -4.42 2.20
Otago -4.94 -4.03 -0.90
Counties Manukau -8.18 -8.18 -0.00
Northland -8.42 -8.71 0.30
Southland -11.60 -14.04 2.40
Manawatu -12.00 -10.57 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. Northland Sep 18 54 – 21 25.70 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. North Harbour Sep 19 41 – 19 3.90 TRUE
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Sep 19 22 – 23 15.50 FALSE
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 19 17 – 14 23.00 TRUE
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 20 31 – 17 10.60 TRUE
6 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 20 25 – 36 -2.90 TRUE
7 Auckland vs. Wellington Sep 20 21 – 39 6.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 25 Wellington 3.50
2 Tasman vs. Waikato Sep 26 Tasman 14.20
3 Southland vs. North Harbour Sep 26 North Harbour -9.50
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Sep 26 Canterbury -5.10
5 Auckland vs. Manawatu Sep 27 Auckland 21.70
6 Taranaki vs. Otago Sep 27 Taranaki 5.70
7 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 27 Counties Manukau 3.20

 

September 15, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for The Final

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Team Ratings for The Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Reds 1.75 -0.31 2.10
Brumbies 1.74 4.67 -2.90
Rebels -4.03 -5.52 1.50
Waratahs -4.64 -7.12 2.50
Force -13.11 -10.00 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Reds vs. Rebels Sep 12 25 – 13 9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for The Final

Here are the predictions for The Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brumbies vs. Reds Sep 19 Brumbies 4.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.17 7.99 2.20
Saracens 8.20 9.34 -1.10
Sale Sharks 6.09 0.17 5.90
Wasps 5.79 0.31 5.50
Bath 3.29 1.10 2.20
Bristol 1.39 -2.77 4.20
Gloucester -0.50 0.58 -1.10
Harlequins -0.56 -0.81 0.20
Northampton Saints -3.12 0.25 -3.40
Leicester Tigers -6.33 -1.76 -4.60
Worcester Warriors -7.96 -2.69 -5.30
London Irish -10.23 -5.51 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wasps vs. Bristol Sep 13 59 – 35 7.10 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Sep 13 28 – 24 0.80 TRUE
3 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 14 25 – 40 4.20 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Sep 14 22 – 37 9.80 FALSE
5 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 14 40 – 17 0.30 TRUE
6 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Sep 15 15 – 28 6.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Sep 23 Bath 8.30
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 29 Bristol 12.20
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Sep 30 Exeter Chiefs 24.90
4 Harlequins vs. Wasps Oct 01 Wasps -1.80
5 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Oct 01 Sale Sharks -4.70
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens Oct 01 Saracens -11.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.06 12.73 1.30
Roosters 12.92 12.25 0.70
Panthers 7.15 -0.13 7.30
Raiders 6.79 7.06 -0.30
Rabbitohs 5.40 2.85 2.60
Eels 2.79 2.80 -0.00
Sharks -0.13 1.81 -1.90
Knights -1.21 -5.92 4.70
Wests Tigers -2.63 -0.18 -2.40
Warriors -2.78 -5.17 2.40
Sea Eagles -2.81 1.05 -3.90
Dragons -5.26 -6.14 0.90
Cowboys -6.66 -3.95 -2.70
Bulldogs -7.45 -2.52 -4.90
Titans -9.89 -12.99 3.10
Broncos -12.30 -5.53 -6.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Sep 10 24 – 26 -6.70 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 11 20 – 32 -1.50 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Eels Sep 11 20 – 2 5.00 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Raiders Sep 12 8 – 37 -8.10 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Broncos Sep 12 18 – 6 3.40 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Knights Sep 12 42 – 12 14.60 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Cowboys Sep 13 36 – 20 21.40 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Warriors Sep 13 22 – 14 6.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Sep 17 Rabbitohs 14.90
2 Cowboys vs. Panthers Sep 18 Panthers -11.80
3 Eels vs. Broncos Sep 18 Eels 17.10
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Sep 19 Sea Eagles 9.10
5 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Sep 19 Storm 16.70
6 Roosters vs. Sharks Sep 19 Roosters 15.00
7 Raiders vs. Warriors Sep 20 Raiders 14.10
8 Knights vs. Dragons Sep 20 Knights 6.10

 

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 14.85 15.13 -0.30
Canterbury 9.20 8.40 0.80
Auckland 8.26 6.75 1.50
Bay of Plenty 7.12 8.21 -1.10
Wellington 4.81 6.47 -1.70
Waikato 2.97 1.31 1.70
North Harbour 2.08 2.87 -0.80
Hawke’s Bay -0.26 0.91 -1.20
Taranaki -3.33 -4.42 1.10
Otago -5.53 -4.03 -1.50
Northland -7.88 -8.71 0.80
Counties Manukau -7.90 -8.18 0.30
Manawatu -11.41 -10.57 -0.80
Southland -12.87 -14.04 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 11 29 – 43 -2.50 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 12 53 – 28 -2.20 FALSE
3 Otago vs. Auckland Sep 12 6 – 38 -7.80 TRUE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Sep 12 24 – 41 -20.30 TRUE
5 Northland vs. Manawatu Sep 13 43 – 26 4.90 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 13 36 – 29 -9.60 FALSE
7 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 13 16 – 10 -11.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Northland Sep 18 Tasman 25.70
2 Waikato vs. North Harbour Sep 19 Waikato 3.90
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Sep 19 Canterbury 15.50
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 19 Bay of Plenty 23.00
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 20 Hawke’s Bay 10.60
6 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 20 Otago -2.90
7 Auckland vs. Wellington Sep 20 Auckland 6.40

 

September 11, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.30 7.99 3.30
Sale Sharks 7.32 0.17 7.10
Saracens 7.06 9.34 -2.30
Wasps 4.90 0.31 4.60
Bristol 2.28 -2.77 5.10
Bath 2.06 1.10 1.00
Gloucester 0.50 0.58 -0.10
Harlequins -1.56 -0.81 -0.80
Northampton Saints -2.86 0.25 -3.10
Leicester Tigers -6.59 -1.76 -4.80
Worcester Warriors -8.94 -2.69 -6.30
London Irish -9.24 -5.51 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Sep 09 47 – 10 6.70 TRUE
2 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 10 54 – 7 12.80 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Sep 10 35 – 22 15.70 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Harlequins Sep 10 15 – 38 -1.00 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Sep 10 24 – 17 4.30 TRUE
6 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 10 40 – 15 14.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wasps vs. Bristol Sep 13 Wasps 7.10
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Sep 13 Leicester Tigers 0.80
3 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 14 London Irish 4.20
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Sep 14 Sale Sharks 9.80
5 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 14 Saracens 0.30
6 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Sep 15 Gloucester 6.60

 

September 8, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for the Qualifying Final

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Team Ratings for the Qualifying Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 1.74 4.67 -2.90
Reds 1.56 -0.31 1.90
Rebels -3.84 -5.52 1.70
Waratahs -4.64 -7.12 2.50
Force -13.11 -10.00 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rebels vs. Force Sep 04 34 – 30 10.40 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Sep 05 26 – 7 2.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Qualifying Final

Here are the predictions for the Qualifying Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Reds vs. Rebels Sep 12 Reds 9.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.52 7.99 3.50
Saracens 7.27 9.34 -2.10
Sale Sharks 7.11 0.17 6.90
Wasps 3.29 0.31 3.00
Bath 1.47 1.10 0.40
Bristol 0.82 -2.77 3.60
Gloucester 0.28 0.58 -0.30
Northampton Saints -1.41 0.25 -1.70
Harlequins -2.67 -0.81 -1.90
Leicester Tigers -4.98 -1.76 -3.20
London Irish -8.14 -5.51 -2.60
Worcester Warriors -8.35 -2.69 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Sep 05 13 – 36 -2.60 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 05 19 – 22 -9.20 TRUE
3 Saracens vs. Wasps Sep 05 18 – 28 10.60 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Bath Sep 05 27 – 41 2.10 FALSE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Sep 06 31 – 40 -7.30 TRUE
6 Gloucester vs. London Irish Sep 06 36 – 23 12.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Sep 09 Bristol 6.70
2 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 10 Wasps 12.80
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Sep 10 Exeter Chiefs 15.70
4 London Irish vs. Harlequins Sep 10 Harlequins -1.00
5 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Sep 10 Sale Sharks 4.30
6 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 10 Bath 14.30

 

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